After a brutally hot and humid week in Memphis, the PGA Tour now moves to much-cooler Pebble Beach for the U.S. Open. The scenery will be breathtaking, and we can hope that the golf will be, too.
I’ve got a line-up heavy on the “chalk picks” this week, with one total “flier” thrown in for good measure.
A-level picks:
Starter: Luke Donald. An all-around good player, in very good form after his recent win in Europe. He’ll be a popular pick this week.
Bench (at least for Thursday): Phil Mickelson. I like Phil at Pebble Beach. I don’t particularly like Phil at a U.S. Open. If his short game is magic, he’ll be “starting” later in the week. Otherwise, it won’t be boring, but it won’t be pretty, either.
No-way pick: Tiger Woods. I don’t know which Tiger will show up. Until there’s more consistency in his game, he’s off my line-ups.
B-level picks:
Starters: Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson. Westwood and every other player who was in the sweat-fest Sunday at TPC Southwind gets a slight downgrade for recovery factor, but I still think Lee will put up a solid finish—top-10, but probably not a win. As for Dustin, he’s won the regular Tour stop at Pebble Beach the last two years. Yes, the course will be playing differently than it did in February, but it’s still the same course.
Bench: Nick Watney, Jim Furyk. Watney was my pre-season pick for this tournament; I’ve cooled on him a bit after a lackluster start to his 2010 season, but not enough to take him completely off the board. Furyk’s hard to pick against in any major, though I was one of many who was stung by his MC at Augusta.
No-way picks: Robert Allenby, Rory McIlroy. I wouldn’t have picked Allenby this week under most circumstances—a balky putter is the last thing one needs at a U.S. Open—but his MC, WD the last two weeks is only adding to my concerns about the current state of his game. McIlroy has his own putting woes at times, and gets further downgraded by the “Memphis factor”.
C-level picks:
Starter: Ben Crane. Another player in very good form lately. I look for that to continue.
Bench: Gareth Maybin. Maybin is a total flier for me, but with so much “chalk”, why not? He’s a decent-enough European Tour player from Northern Ireland, and could be surprisingly good. Then again, he could also miss the cut by a dozen strokes.
No-way pick: Graeme McDowell. Regular readers know that I really like McDowell’s game, and that I’m regularly following him at events. He does have very good GIR stats. However, he also has extremely weak scrambling and sand-save percentages (his PGA Tour rank, were he a member, would be somewhere in the 170’s); add that to a putter that runs hot-and-cold and the fact that he’s never finished higher than 30th in a U.S. Open, and I have to stay away this week.
Last week's results:
An indifferent week. Of my “three to watch”, Heath Slocum was the best, with a 6th-place finish. David Toms finished 29th, and Robert Allenby withdrew halfway through the first round due to illness. Current Yahoo Fantasy Golf stats: 3305 points, 79th percentile.
Until next time, best of luck to all!
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Sunday, June 13, 2010
On-course report: St. Jude Classic, Sunday
Congratulations to Lee Westwood, the 2010 St. Jude Classic champion! Lee won on the fourth playoff hole, defeating both Robert Garrigus and Robert Karlsson. While I was cheering for Westwood all week (I didn’t pick him, because I wasn’t sure about his lack of course knowledge and how he might be affected by the hot and humid conditions, but was still cheering for him to win), my heart went out to Garrigus to some extent. On the 72nd hole of a tournament that would likely be his first win, holding a three-shot lead, he went into total “train-wreck” mode, resulting in a triple-bogey; when his drive on the first playoff hole landed under a tree, his tournament was over. Hopefully, he’ll have more chances to win, and soon!
I knew the weather would be as bad today as it had been yesterday (and, in fact, it was worse), so I decided to get to the course relatively early and follow whichever group was on the first tee when I arrived. That group was Rich Barcelo and Charles Warren, neither of whom I’d ever seen play before (and I’d never even heard of Barcelo). Following a mix-up at the ropes on the sixth tee, I stayed back and followed the next group, Dean Wilson and Jonathan Byrd, through the remainder of the front nine. After that, the heat and humidity got to be a bit more than I liked, so I sat in a shady spot near the 10th tee and watched most of the rest of the groups come through. Some observations from the day:
* Most of the players were very polite and went out of their way to tell the volunteers how much they appreciated them today. That’s something I see at a lot of events, but it never fails to impress me.
* There were some horrendous scores out there today (81's from Maggert and Wittenberg, 82 from Chad Campbell). Southwind isn’t an easy course, but I didn’t see any reason why there were quite a few big numbers out there.
* How hot was it? On the 6th tee, Jonathan Byrd already had a wet towel over his head. This was probably around 9:30 a.m.
* Speaking of wet towels, if there had been a few wet-towel concession stands, I would have been broke long before finishing 9 holes!
* Boo Weekley had the biggest gallery that I saw (I missed John Daly’s gallery, which apparently is always the largest here); Rory McIlroy’s was a close second. Rory’s fans got to “awww...” as he kissed his girlfriend at the 10th tee.
* The crowds seemed to be down this year from last year. I think the weather had a lot to do with it; it was hot last year, but it was 7-8 degrees hotter each day this year.
All in all, a weekend well-spent. The next “live report” will come in two months, from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in Akron, Ohio.
I knew the weather would be as bad today as it had been yesterday (and, in fact, it was worse), so I decided to get to the course relatively early and follow whichever group was on the first tee when I arrived. That group was Rich Barcelo and Charles Warren, neither of whom I’d ever seen play before (and I’d never even heard of Barcelo). Following a mix-up at the ropes on the sixth tee, I stayed back and followed the next group, Dean Wilson and Jonathan Byrd, through the remainder of the front nine. After that, the heat and humidity got to be a bit more than I liked, so I sat in a shady spot near the 10th tee and watched most of the rest of the groups come through. Some observations from the day:
* Most of the players were very polite and went out of their way to tell the volunteers how much they appreciated them today. That’s something I see at a lot of events, but it never fails to impress me.
* There were some horrendous scores out there today (81's from Maggert and Wittenberg, 82 from Chad Campbell). Southwind isn’t an easy course, but I didn’t see any reason why there were quite a few big numbers out there.
* How hot was it? On the 6th tee, Jonathan Byrd already had a wet towel over his head. This was probably around 9:30 a.m.
* Speaking of wet towels, if there had been a few wet-towel concession stands, I would have been broke long before finishing 9 holes!
* Boo Weekley had the biggest gallery that I saw (I missed John Daly’s gallery, which apparently is always the largest here); Rory McIlroy’s was a close second. Rory’s fans got to “awww...” as he kissed his girlfriend at the 10th tee.
* The crowds seemed to be down this year from last year. I think the weather had a lot to do with it; it was hot last year, but it was 7-8 degrees hotter each day this year.
All in all, a weekend well-spent. The next “live report” will come in two months, from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in Akron, Ohio.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
On-course report: St. Jude Classic, Saturday
I’m in Memphis this weekend, for the last two rounds of the 2010 St. Jude Classic. This is my second trip to Memphis in as many years, and I was pleased to find that the volunteers are as nice as they were in 2009 (some of the nicest I’ve met out there). On the other hand, the heat and humidity are not only as high as they were one year ago, they’re higher: mid-90's Fahrenheit, with high humidity pushing the heat index to around 105. It’s brutal out there.
I only made it 9 holes today; like many of the players this week, I’ve been a bit under the weather and decided not to push it through 18 in the hostile weather conditions. I started on the 10th tee with the group of Padraig Harrington, Charles Howell III, and Phil Tataurangi. At the 13th green, it was time to stop for a while, finish the first 20-ounce bottle of water, and pick up a later group, which ended up being the group of Fredrik Jacobson, Billy Mayfair, and Dicky Pride. I followed that group through the finish. Some thoughts on the round:
* Padraig Harrington has a deserved reputation as a slower player, but he was playing pretty close to normal speed today. Perhaps he was as ready to get through the round and off the course as everyone else.
* I’d never heard of Phil Tataurangi before today, and if today’s round was any indication, I can see why I’d never heard of him. He was consistently far behind his playing partners off the tee. On the par-3 11th hole, that shortness found him in the hazard and led to a double-bogey. On the next hole, he promptly found the hazard again, and another double-bogey. Apparently, the rest of his day wasn’t much better, as he finished with a 12-over par 82 on the day.
* There is nothing pretty about Fredrik Jacobson’s swing. It doesn’t look pretty on TV, and it looks just as bad in person. Even his set-up looks “off”. On the other hand, he usually gets pretty good results, and that’s the important thing.
* Speaking of things that aren’t pretty, Jacobson’s triple at the 15th was a train wreck. His tee shot ended up under a tree, with more trees in front of him. In attempting to go under a branch with the 2nd shot, he clipped the branch and landed well-short of where he’d planned. His 3rd shot came close to the green, but bounced off the bank and into the hazard. For reasons that elude me (and likely everyone else), he elected to try to hit the ball out of the hazard and avoid incurring a penalty stroke. The spectators in the area were practically taking bets on whether he would fall in the water (he stood on the bank on some very soft and not-so-stable ground; a player with more weight might not have had that option). The ball came out of the water by a few inches, before falling back in. After the penalty drop, shot #6 landed on the green, and he one-putted for the 7.
* Billy Mayfair has some very vocal fans in the hospitality tents. Every time he made a putt on a hole with a hospitality area, he was greeted with loud cheers. It didn’t matter if it was for par or birdie.
Until tomorrow...
I only made it 9 holes today; like many of the players this week, I’ve been a bit under the weather and decided not to push it through 18 in the hostile weather conditions. I started on the 10th tee with the group of Padraig Harrington, Charles Howell III, and Phil Tataurangi. At the 13th green, it was time to stop for a while, finish the first 20-ounce bottle of water, and pick up a later group, which ended up being the group of Fredrik Jacobson, Billy Mayfair, and Dicky Pride. I followed that group through the finish. Some thoughts on the round:
* Padraig Harrington has a deserved reputation as a slower player, but he was playing pretty close to normal speed today. Perhaps he was as ready to get through the round and off the course as everyone else.
* I’d never heard of Phil Tataurangi before today, and if today’s round was any indication, I can see why I’d never heard of him. He was consistently far behind his playing partners off the tee. On the par-3 11th hole, that shortness found him in the hazard and led to a double-bogey. On the next hole, he promptly found the hazard again, and another double-bogey. Apparently, the rest of his day wasn’t much better, as he finished with a 12-over par 82 on the day.
* There is nothing pretty about Fredrik Jacobson’s swing. It doesn’t look pretty on TV, and it looks just as bad in person. Even his set-up looks “off”. On the other hand, he usually gets pretty good results, and that’s the important thing.
* Speaking of things that aren’t pretty, Jacobson’s triple at the 15th was a train wreck. His tee shot ended up under a tree, with more trees in front of him. In attempting to go under a branch with the 2nd shot, he clipped the branch and landed well-short of where he’d planned. His 3rd shot came close to the green, but bounced off the bank and into the hazard. For reasons that elude me (and likely everyone else), he elected to try to hit the ball out of the hazard and avoid incurring a penalty stroke. The spectators in the area were practically taking bets on whether he would fall in the water (he stood on the bank on some very soft and not-so-stable ground; a player with more weight might not have had that option). The ball came out of the water by a few inches, before falling back in. After the penalty drop, shot #6 landed on the green, and he one-putted for the 7.
* Billy Mayfair has some very vocal fans in the hospitality tents. Every time he made a putt on a hole with a hospitality area, he was greeted with loud cheers. It didn’t matter if it was for par or birdie.
Until tomorrow...
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Predictions: St. Jude Classic
After missing last week due to some "off-the-course" issues, I'm back with my picks for the St. Jude Classic. I'll be reporting "live" from Memphis after the final two rounds, so stay tuned on Saturday and Sunday. The food and music will be great, and hopefully the weather will be better than last year!
Three players I'm watching closely this week:
* Heath Slocum. He had a top-10 here last year, and I'm expecting the same this year.
* David Toms. He's won twice here, and was runner-up last year. Hard not to pick him this week.
* Robert Allenby. Yes, I've got Allenby on the bench for the first round, instead of starting. Ordinarily, he'd be a sure-thing starter, with top-5's in the last two years here. However, I've got serious questions about his mental game at this point, and his two-day-only showing at Memorial did nothing to alleviate those concerns. If he turns it around early, he'll start in later rounds.
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
"Front 4": Heath Slocum, David Toms, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
"Bench team": Jason Dufner, Robert Allenby, Brian Gay, John Senden
Current Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 3157 points, 81st percentile.
Best of luck to all!
Three players I'm watching closely this week:
* Heath Slocum. He had a top-10 here last year, and I'm expecting the same this year.
* David Toms. He's won twice here, and was runner-up last year. Hard not to pick him this week.
* Robert Allenby. Yes, I've got Allenby on the bench for the first round, instead of starting. Ordinarily, he'd be a sure-thing starter, with top-5's in the last two years here. However, I've got serious questions about his mental game at this point, and his two-day-only showing at Memorial did nothing to alleviate those concerns. If he turns it around early, he'll start in later rounds.
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
"Front 4": Heath Slocum, David Toms, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
"Bench team": Jason Dufner, Robert Allenby, Brian Gay, John Senden
Current Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 3157 points, 81st percentile.
Best of luck to all!
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Predictions: Colonial
First of all, congratulations to last week’s winners: Jason Day at the Byron Nelson, Simon Khan at the BMW PGA, Sun Young Yoo at the Sybase, and John Riegger at the Rex Hospital Classic. And congratulations as well to 16-year-old Jordan Spieth, for his top-20 finish at the Byron Nelson; I was impressed by his play, and even more by his maturity.
Now the PGA Tour moves just a few miles down the road, to Fort Worth for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Some players I’ll be watching this week are:
* Jason Day. He played well here last year. I’ll be interested to see if he goes into this week with positive momentum from last week’s win, or if there’s a bit of a “victory hangover”.
* Kevin Na. Also a good history here at Colonial. I was expecting more out of Na this year than he’s showed so far (I did predict he’d get a win this year); I’ll be interested to see if his solid play on this course continues, or if it’s another sign of an “off” year.
* Tim Clark. Another player with a solid history at Colonial. Now that he has that first win under his belt, will subsequent wins be easier or more difficult to come by?
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
“Front 4”: Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Kevin Na, Paul Casey
“Bench team”: Steve Marino, Kevin Sutherland, Rod Pampling, Tim Clark
Now that we’re well into the season, the 10-start maximum in the Yahoo game is starting to come into play with making weekly selections. Phil Mickelson is a solid A-level pick, but I’ve used him a lot already this year, and will save him for bigger events. I consider Casey/Clark to be nearly a toss-up this week, and have more starts remaining for Casey; but Clark’s too intriguing to pass up, and he might end up getting into the starting lineup before the week is over.
After another indifferent week, my Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings are: 2847 points, 78th percentile.
Best of luck to all!
Now the PGA Tour moves just a few miles down the road, to Fort Worth for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Some players I’ll be watching this week are:
* Jason Day. He played well here last year. I’ll be interested to see if he goes into this week with positive momentum from last week’s win, or if there’s a bit of a “victory hangover”.
* Kevin Na. Also a good history here at Colonial. I was expecting more out of Na this year than he’s showed so far (I did predict he’d get a win this year); I’ll be interested to see if his solid play on this course continues, or if it’s another sign of an “off” year.
* Tim Clark. Another player with a solid history at Colonial. Now that he has that first win under his belt, will subsequent wins be easier or more difficult to come by?
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
“Front 4”: Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Kevin Na, Paul Casey
“Bench team”: Steve Marino, Kevin Sutherland, Rod Pampling, Tim Clark
Now that we’re well into the season, the 10-start maximum in the Yahoo game is starting to come into play with making weekly selections. Phil Mickelson is a solid A-level pick, but I’ve used him a lot already this year, and will save him for bigger events. I consider Casey/Clark to be nearly a toss-up this week, and have more starts remaining for Casey; but Clark’s too intriguing to pass up, and he might end up getting into the starting lineup before the week is over.
After another indifferent week, my Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings are: 2847 points, 78th percentile.
Best of luck to all!
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Predictions: Byron Nelson
Congratulations to last week's winners: Adam Scott at the Valero Texas Open, Peter Hanson in Mallorca, Justin Hicks at the BMW Charity Pro-Am, and Se Ri Pak at the Bell Micro LPGA Classic.
The PGA Tour now moves to the Dallas area, with the HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Las Colinas. I don't have any "spotlight picks" this week, because I'm honestly not bullish about anyone in the field. But for those playing Yahoo Fantasy Golf, here are my picks for the week:
"Front 4": Scott Verplank, Brian Davis, James Nitties, John Senden
"Bench team": D.A. Points, Briny Baird, Rory Sabbatini, Ben Crane
Last week was a decent week for picks: "spotlight player" Bo Van Pelt finished 28th, and Fredrik Jacobson was the runner-up. Unfortunately, some not-so-great A and C-level picks left my Yahoo team with just the B-listers on the weekend. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2743 points, 79th percentile.
Best of luck to all!
The PGA Tour now moves to the Dallas area, with the HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Las Colinas. I don't have any "spotlight picks" this week, because I'm honestly not bullish about anyone in the field. But for those playing Yahoo Fantasy Golf, here are my picks for the week:
"Front 4": Scott Verplank, Brian Davis, James Nitties, John Senden
"Bench team": D.A. Points, Briny Baird, Rory Sabbatini, Ben Crane
Last week was a decent week for picks: "spotlight player" Bo Van Pelt finished 28th, and Fredrik Jacobson was the runner-up. Unfortunately, some not-so-great A and C-level picks left my Yahoo team with just the B-listers on the weekend. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2743 points, 79th percentile.
Best of luck to all!
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Predictions: Valero Texas Open
First of all, on a serious note, sympathies go out to the family and friends of LPGA player Erica Blasberg, who died this weekend at age 25.
Now on to this week’s event, the Valero Texas Open. It’s being held on a new course this week, the TPC San Antonio.
My top picks of the week:
* Bo Van Pelt. Three top-10's in a row for Bo. Can he make it four?
* Fredrik Jacobson. While the course was different, Fredrik did finish 5th in last year’s event. He’s coming off a 10th-place finish at The Players last week.
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf lineup for this week is:
“Front 4": Zach Johnson, Bo Van Pelt, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
“Bench team”: Justin Leonard, Charley Hoffman, James Driscoll, Chris Stroud
Last week was another somewhat indifferent week for picks. Ben Crane did finish 4th, but Jim Furyk was 47th and Stephen Ames, 58th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings so far: 2651 points, 81st percentile.
Best of luck to all!
Now on to this week’s event, the Valero Texas Open. It’s being held on a new course this week, the TPC San Antonio.
My top picks of the week:
* Bo Van Pelt. Three top-10's in a row for Bo. Can he make it four?
* Fredrik Jacobson. While the course was different, Fredrik did finish 5th in last year’s event. He’s coming off a 10th-place finish at The Players last week.
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf lineup for this week is:
“Front 4": Zach Johnson, Bo Van Pelt, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
“Bench team”: Justin Leonard, Charley Hoffman, James Driscoll, Chris Stroud
Last week was another somewhat indifferent week for picks. Ben Crane did finish 4th, but Jim Furyk was 47th and Stephen Ames, 58th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings so far: 2651 points, 81st percentile.
Best of luck to all!
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