Predictions: U.S. Open

After a brutally hot and humid week in Memphis, the PGA Tour now moves to much-cooler Pebble Beach for the U.S. Open. The scenery will be breathtaking, and we can hope that the golf will be, too.

I’ve got a line-up heavy on the “chalk picks” this week, with one total “flier” thrown in for good measure.

A-level picks:
Starter: Luke Donald. An all-around good player, in very good form after his recent win in Europe. He’ll be a popular pick this week.

Bench (at least for Thursday): Phil Mickelson. I like Phil at Pebble Beach. I don’t particularly like Phil at a U.S. Open. If his short game is magic, he’ll be “starting” later in the week. Otherwise, it won’t be boring, but it won’t be pretty, either.

No-way pick: Tiger Woods. I don’t know which Tiger will show up. Until there’s more consistency in his game, he’s off my line-ups.

B-level picks:
Starters: Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson. Westwood and every other player who was in the sweat-fest Sunday at TPC Southwind gets a slight downgrade for recovery factor, but I still think Lee will put up a solid finish—top-10, but probably not a win. As for Dustin, he’s won the regular Tour stop at Pebble Beach the last two years. Yes, the course will be playing differently than it did in February, but it’s still the same course.

Bench: Nick Watney, Jim Furyk. Watney was my pre-season pick for this tournament; I’ve cooled on him a bit after a lackluster start to his 2010 season, but not enough to take him completely off the board. Furyk’s hard to pick against in any major, though I was one of many who was stung by his MC at Augusta.

No-way picks: Robert Allenby, Rory McIlroy. I wouldn’t have picked Allenby this week under most circumstances—a balky putter is the last thing one needs at a U.S. Open—but his MC, WD the last two weeks is only adding to my concerns about the current state of his game. McIlroy has his own putting woes at times, and gets further downgraded by the “Memphis factor”.

C-level picks:
Starter: Ben Crane. Another player in very good form lately. I look for that to continue.

Bench: Gareth Maybin. Maybin is a total flier for me, but with so much “chalk”, why not? He’s a decent-enough European Tour player from Northern Ireland, and could be surprisingly good. Then again, he could also miss the cut by a dozen strokes.

No-way pick: Graeme McDowell. Regular readers know that I really like McDowell’s game, and that I’m regularly following him at events. He does have very good GIR stats. However, he also has extremely weak scrambling and sand-save percentages (his PGA Tour rank, were he a member, would be somewhere in the 170’s); add that to a putter that runs hot-and-cold and the fact that he’s never finished higher than 30th in a U.S. Open, and I have to stay away this week.

Last week's results:
An indifferent week. Of my “three to watch”, Heath Slocum was the best, with a 6th-place finish. David Toms finished 29th, and Robert Allenby withdrew halfway through the first round due to illness. Current Yahoo Fantasy Golf stats: 3305 points, 79th percentile.

Until next time, best of luck to all!

Predictions: St. Jude Classic

After missing last week due to some "off-the-course" issues, I'm back with my picks for the St. Jude Classic. I'll be reporting "live" from Memphis after the final two rounds, so stay tuned on Saturday and Sunday. The food and music will be great, and hopefully the weather will be better than last year!

Three players I'm watching closely this week:

* Heath Slocum. He had a top-10 here last year, and I'm expecting the same this year.

* David Toms. He's won twice here, and was runner-up last year. Hard not to pick him this week.

* Robert Allenby. Yes, I've got Allenby on the bench for the first round, instead of starting. Ordinarily, he'd be a sure-thing starter, with top-5's in the last two years here. However, I've got serious questions about his mental game at this point, and his two-day-only showing at Memorial did nothing to alleviate those concerns. If he turns it around early, he'll start in later rounds.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:

"Front 4": Heath Slocum, David Toms, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
"Bench team": Jason Dufner, Robert Allenby, Brian Gay, John Senden

Current Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 3157 points, 81st percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Colonial

First of all, congratulations to last week’s winners: Jason Day at the Byron Nelson, Simon Khan at the BMW PGA, Sun Young Yoo at the Sybase, and John Riegger at the Rex Hospital Classic. And congratulations as well to 16-year-old Jordan Spieth, for his top-20 finish at the Byron Nelson; I was impressed by his play, and even more by his maturity.

Now the PGA Tour moves just a few miles down the road, to Fort Worth for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Some players I’ll be watching this week are:

* Jason Day. He played well here last year. I’ll be interested to see if he goes into this week with positive momentum from last week’s win, or if there’s a bit of a “victory hangover”.

* Kevin Na. Also a good history here at Colonial. I was expecting more out of Na this year than he’s showed so far (I did predict he’d get a win this year); I’ll be interested to see if his solid play on this course continues, or if it’s another sign of an “off” year.

* Tim Clark. Another player with a solid history at Colonial. Now that he has that first win under his belt, will subsequent wins be easier or more difficult to come by?

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:

“Front 4”: Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Kevin Na, Paul Casey
“Bench team”: Steve Marino, Kevin Sutherland, Rod Pampling, Tim Clark

Now that we’re well into the season, the 10-start maximum in the Yahoo game is starting to come into play with making weekly selections. Phil Mickelson is a solid A-level pick, but I’ve used him a lot already this year, and will save him for bigger events. I consider Casey/Clark to be nearly a toss-up this week, and have more starts remaining for Casey; but Clark’s too intriguing to pass up, and he might end up getting into the starting lineup before the week is over.

After another indifferent week, my Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings are: 2847 points, 78th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Byron Nelson

Congratulations to last week's winners: Adam Scott at the Valero Texas Open, Peter Hanson in Mallorca, Justin Hicks at the BMW Charity Pro-Am, and Se Ri Pak at the Bell Micro LPGA Classic.

The PGA Tour now moves to the Dallas area, with the HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Las Colinas. I don't have any "spotlight picks" this week, because I'm honestly not bullish about anyone in the field. But for those playing Yahoo Fantasy Golf, here are my picks for the week:

"Front 4": Scott Verplank, Brian Davis, James Nitties, John Senden
"Bench team": D.A. Points, Briny Baird, Rory Sabbatini, Ben Crane

Last week was a decent week for picks: "spotlight player" Bo Van Pelt finished 28th, and Fredrik Jacobson was the runner-up. Unfortunately, some not-so-great A and C-level picks left my Yahoo team with just the B-listers on the weekend. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2743 points, 79th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Valero Texas Open

First of all, on a serious note, sympathies go out to the family and friends of LPGA player Erica Blasberg, who died this weekend at age 25.

Now on to this week’s event, the Valero Texas Open. It’s being held on a new course this week, the TPC San Antonio.

My top picks of the week:

* Bo Van Pelt. Three top-10's in a row for Bo. Can he make it four?

* Fredrik Jacobson. While the course was different, Fredrik did finish 5th in last year’s event. He’s coming off a 10th-place finish at The Players last week.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf lineup for this week is:
“Front 4": Zach Johnson, Bo Van Pelt, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
“Bench team”: Justin Leonard, Charley Hoffman, James Driscoll, Chris Stroud

Last week was another somewhat indifferent week for picks. Ben Crane did finish 4th, but Jim Furyk was 47th and Stephen Ames, 58th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings so far: 2651 points, 81st percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Quail Hollow

This week, the PGA Tour is off to Charlotte, North Carolina, and the Quail Hollow Championship. With a course that is pegged a future major venue by many, and a field boasting most of the top players on the Tour (the most notable absence being the still-injured Steve Stricker), this week’s tournament is sure to be worth a watch.

My “spotlight players” for this week:

* Tiger Woods. Quail Hollow isn’t the Masters: tickets are available to the general public, so it will be interesting to see if any of the patrons have special greetings for Tiger, and if so, how he reacts. I’m more interested in seeing how his game looks, now that he has one tournament under his belt for 2010.

* Jason Dufner. Dufner helped my fantasy team out tremendously last week, with a 7th-place finish in New Orleans. He was 5th at Quail Hollow last year.

* Stuart Appleby. Are his back-to-back top-10's at Hilton Head and New Orleans a sign that his game really is coming back? We’ll see.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Jason Dufner, Lucas Glover, Camilo Villegas, Stuart Appleby
“Bench team”: Tiger Woods, Sean O’Hair, Lee Westwood, Angel Cabrera

Last week was another mid-range week for picks. David Toms and Charles Howell III showed some promise early on, but finished in a lackluster 28th and 43rd, respectively. Steve Marino’s missed-cut-not-even-close disappointed a lot of prognosticators. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2444 points, 82nd percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Zurich Classic

Laissez les bon temps roulez! Grab your beignets, etouffee, and a favorite beverage, because this week the Tour is in New Orleans for the Zurich Classic. Early-week favorites Steve Stricker and Ian Poulter have both withdrawn with injuries, so the field is set to yield up some surprising names at the top of the leaderboard.

My “spotlight players” for this week:

* Steve Marino. He had a top-5 finish here last year, and two top-5's so far this season. He’s got to win sometime, and it might as well be this week.

* Charles Howell III. He was runner-up here last year, and has three top-10's so far this season. He played well early at Hilton Head last week, before fading over the weekend.

* David Toms. He also finished in the top 5 here last year. He hasn’t made any waves so far this season, due in part to shoulder trouble, but this is a virtual home game for him, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t “show up”.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Steve Marino, Charles Howell III, David Toms, Jerry Kelly
“Bench team”: Jason Dufner, Rory Sabbatini, Briny Baird, Ben Crane

Last week was a decent week for picks. Luke Donald came in 3rd, and my “dark horse” pick of Tim Wilkinson was a respectable 22nd. Defending Heritage champion Brian Gay’s 32nd-place finish was disappointing, however. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2298 points, 80th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Heritage

Like many golf fans out there, I’m still nursing a bit of a “Masters hangover” this Tuesday evening, so this week may be a bit of a letdown. But the PGA Tour marches on, and this week’s tournament is the Verizon Heritage in lovely Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.

My “spotlight players” for this week:

* Luke Donald. Runner-up here last year, and two top-10's so far this year (Northern Trust, Travelers).

* Brian Gay. Defending champion. I was expecting more out of him at Augusta last week, but still optimistic about his chances to repeat this week.

* Tim Wilkinson. He finished 6th here last year. He’s completely off the map right now, but could factor as a “surprise/dark horse” pick if he finds the form he had here in 2010.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
“Front 4": Luke Donald, Brian Gay, Lee Janzen, Davis Love III
“Bench team”: Heath Slocum, K.J. Choi, Rod Pampling, Tim Wilkinson

Last week was a good week for picks. My “spotlight” pro, Hunter Mahan, finished in 8th place, and Italian amateur Matteo Manassero (“spotlight” #2) finished a respectable 36th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2163, 81st percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Masters

Predictions: Masters

Congratulations to Anthony Kim, who won last week’s Shell Houston Open.

Now on to Augusta, for the Masters. The big question for predictions is: To pick Tiger, or not to pick Tiger? I’m holding off for this week, until I see more of the state of his game.

My “spotlight players” for the week:

* Hunter Mahan. He finished in the top 10 at Augusta last year. The missed cut last week at Houston is a slight concern, but he’s been playing reasonably well this year, including a win in Phoenix.

* Matteo Manassero. The Italian amateur is scheduled to turn pro this spring, at the tender age of 16. He seems to be the real deal.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
“Front 4": Steve Stricker, Hunter Mahan, Lee Westwood, Matt Kuchar
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Brian Gay, Oliver Wilson, Mike Weir

Last week wasn’t a great one for picks. One of my “spotlight players”, Paul Casey, was a late withdrawal with a shoulder injury, and the other, Fred Couples, came in 55th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 1929 points, 73th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Shell Houston Open

Congratulations to Ernie Els, who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Monday afternoon; as I mentioned in my post from Sunday, if you’re superstitious and inclined to wagering, you might want to make a wager on him for the Players Championship in May.

But now it’s on to Texas, for the Shell Houston Open. Most predictors that I’ve read have mentioned Paul Casey and Fred Couples as two players to watch, and I’m no exception. Casey is the defending champion, and Couples finished 3rd here last year. Casey has three top-10 finishes in stroke-play events this year, two within the last month, as well as a runner-up finish at the WGC-Accenture Match Play. Couples has three wins in four starts on the Champions Tour this season. Both are bringing a lot of positive momentum into Houston.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4 : Bubba Watson, Fred Couples, Lee Westwood, Paul Casey
“Bench team”: Ernie Els, Hunter Mahan, Andres Romero, Nick O’Hern

The “prediction hex” was on last week, as my two spotlight players, Nick Watney and Graeme McDowell, finished 64th and MC, respectively.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 1813 points, 75th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Bay Hill

First, congratulations to Jim Furyk for his win on Sunday at the Transitions Championship. That big “whoosh” that you may be hearing is PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem breathing a sigh of relief that Furyk joins Els, Poulter, and Villegas as recent winners who might be recognizable to the more casual golf fan.

Another congratulations goes out to Team Lake Nona, for successfully defending their Tavistock Cup title on Tuesday, winning for the first time at Isleworth. Isleworth’s Nick O’Hern took the Payne Stewart Salver Award for lowest individual score, with a course-record-tying 65.

Now on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. The course was the most challenging non-major course in 2009, and while it has returned to a par-72 from last year’s par-70, it’s sure to have its challenges still awaiting a very strong field. I’ve got two “spotlight players” this week:

* Nick Watney. Watney finished 4th here last year, and also 4th at Tampa last week. His 2010 season started a bit slower than I’d expected, but he seems to be coming around now.

* Graeme McDowell. Regular readers know that I’m a bit partisan toward McDowell, but this is actually the first time I’ve picked him in 2010. His season also took a bit of time to warm up, but his game currently looks very solid. He played reasonably well here through the first two rounds last year, before fading on the weekend; however, his game seems to be holding up better through four rounds this year than it was at this point last year.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf picks don’t feature a lot of the popular picks (Stricker, Mickelson, Dustin Johnson); I’ve used many of them several times already this year, and saving them for tournaments where I feel they’ll be better used.

“Front 4": Zach Johnson, Nick Watney, Robert Allenby, Graeme McDowell
“Bench team”: Stephen Ames, Pat Perez, Retief Goosen, John Senden

Last week was a pretty good week for picks. My spotlight players, Steve Stricker and Charlie Wi, finished 8th and 20th, respectively, and K.J. Choi proved an especially good B-pick, with his runner-up finish. My Yahoo team now has 1675 points, in the 76th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Transitions Championship

A belated congratulations to Derek Lamely, the winner on Monday in the rain-delayed Puerto Rico Open.

And now it’s on to Palm Harbor, site of the Transitions Championship. Alas, there will be no on-site reporting from this writer this week, as something called a “real job” tends to interfere with my Tour-chasing schedule. But I do have some picks for this week’s tournament.

Top pick, “chalk” edition: Steve Stricker. He’s the best player in the field, and he finished tied for 4th here last year.

Top pick, “sleeper” edition: Charlie Wi. The last time I picked Charlie, he rewarded me with a top-10 finish at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. I’m hoping he’ll do the same this week. He also finished tied for 4th here last year.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4 : Charlie Wi, K.J. Choi, Charles Howell III, Matthew Goggin
“Bench team”: Steve Stricker, Kevin Na, Bo Van Pelt, Brendon de Jonge

Last week was a week of weak performances for most of my fantasy golf picks. Alvaro Quiros was my sole top-10 player, and while my “spotlight pick” of Camilo Villegas finished in a respectable 16th, the rest of my team was middling at best. I’m currently at 1515 points, in the 72nd percentile. Hopefully, this week will turn the momentum back in a positive direction.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: WGC-CA Championship

Greetings from lovely Doral, Florida, where the weather is like something out of a south Florida tourist brochure on this Wednesday afternoon. But before I can lounge by the hotel pool (yes, it is a tough life...), here are my picks for this week’s WGC-CA Championship.

Winner: Camilo Villegas. Yes, I’m going with “chalk”, but with a 3rd, an 8th, and a win in his last three starts, and a 5th-place finish at Doral, he seems like a pretty good one. Of course, that and the confidence that seemingly most of the golf world is putting in Camilo this week may prove to put the hex on him...

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4": Kenny Perry, Camilo Villegas, Alvaro Quiros, Soren Kjeldsen
“Bench team”: Anthony Kim, Nick Watney, Oliver Wilson, Angel Cabrera

I’ll be watching two of my bench players in action in the first two rounds, as I have plans to follow Kim, Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell for a portion of the first round and likely all of the second. (By the way, if you’re thinking of starting McDowell this week, don’t. I watched him play three rounds here last year, and it doesn’t seem to be the best course for his game. Of course, if the “announcer’s curse” works in reverse, I’ve probably just guaranteed GMac a top-10 finish.)

Last week’s Yahoo results left something to be desired. Despite top-10 finishes from both Charlie Wi and Fredrik Jacobson, I went into the weekend with only 3 of 8 players making the cut. I’m currently in the 73rd percentile, with 1365 points.

Best of luck to all! Now, about that mai tai....

Predictions: Honda Classic

Congratulations to Hunter Mahan, last week’s winner at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. For all the talk about Mahan as one of the “hot players under 30", it’s surprising that this is his first win in almost three years; it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to record his next win.

The Tour now heads east for the first stop in the “Florida swing”, the Honda Classic. Last year’s winner, Y.E. Yang, certainly would have been an “out-of-the-box” pick at the time, as he was just a few months removed from Q-school. He was even more of an “out-of-the-box” pick a few months later, when he won the PGA Championship. I followed Yang for a round at Doral the week after his victory at Honda last year, and saw no signs of the major to come. So for this year’s edition of the Honda, I’ve got quite a few “out-of-the-box” names, as well as some more familiar.

My “front 4" for this week’s Yahoo Fantasy Golf game:
Charlie Wi, Robert Allenby, Fredrik Jacobson, John Rollins

My “bench team” for at least the first day:
D.A. Points, Jeff Klauk, Scott Piercy, Tim Clark

With the exception of Clark, all the rest of the selected players finished in the top 10 at Honda last year. We’ll see if this week will be one in which past performance actually correlates to future results!

Last week’s predictions were pretty lackluster. My two “spotlight players”, J.B. Holmes and J.P. Hayes, finished in 43rd and 36th places, respectively. An indifferent performance from my entire Yahoo Fantasy Golf team led to a total of 1255 points, in the 79th percentile. Hopefully, some Florida sunshine will shine on this week’s line-up!

Speaking of Florida sunshine, a sneak preview of next week: I’ll be blogging from Doral, Florida, and will have “live” updates after each round. I’ll kick off the week with a few “off-course” anecdotes from last year’s Doral trip, so stay tuned!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Phoenix

Congratulations to last week’s winners. Ian Poulter recorded his first PGA Tour win at the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and Cameron Beckman earned his third PGA win at the Mayakoba Golf Classic.

Now grab your favorite beverage and start writing your cheers (or jeers), because it’s time to hit #16–TPC Scottsdale #16 that is, the loudest hole in golf. The tournament this year has a new sponsor, Waste Management (who may have their hands full disposing of all those empty beverage containers), and a new name, the Waste Management Phoenix Open (known as the FBR Open last year), but the rowdy atmosphere is the same as ever.

I have two players to watch this week:

* J.B. Holmes. He’s won twice here. Enough said.

* J.P. Hayes. He has two top-10's in his last two starts. It will be interesting to see if he carries that momentum forward this week.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team this week is:
“Front 4": Ryan Moore, J.B. Holmes, Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar
“Bench team”: Kenny Perry, Brian Gay, David Toms, J.P. Hayes

Last week’s predictions didn’t go so well. My Match Play pick, Ross Fisher, got bounced in the first round, and my Mayakoba picks weren’t much better (Jerry Kelly finished 28th, and Nick Dougherty should’ve just skipped the week, as he missed the cut). With only one B-team player for the weekend, my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team slipped back to the 81st percentile, with a total of 1131 points.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Mayakoba

Dustin Johnson successfully defended his title at Pebble Beach on Sunday, despite a final-round 74. How Johnson became one of only two Americans in their 20's with three PGA Tour wins (Sean O’Hair being the other) and the first player since Tiger Woods to win in each of his first three seasons, while still flying under the radar of many fans is a mystery to me; however, I suspect his anonymity is over now.

The most visceral takeaway from Pebble Beach for me, however, is this: I really don’t like seeing 9's. At least three players (Alex Prugh, Bryce Molder, and Paul Goydos) scored a 9 on the par-5 14th hole on Sunday. After shot 7 or so, it really becomes painful to watch.

This week, the Tour is giving us a double-dose of golf, with the Match Play and the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico. In earlier posts, I gave my predictions for the Match Play. Making picks for Mayakoba was much more challenging; to call the field weak would probably be an understatement, and even I had never heard of many of the players teeing it up. I’m highlighting two players this week:

* Jerry Kelly. This is more to see where his game is at, and how much trouble his back injury from earlier this season is going to be. He finished T-6 here last year. Depending on the back, I think he’ll either play very well or be out early with either a missed cut or WD.

* Nick Dougherty. Dougherty seems like a strange entry in this field. He’s a European Tour player without PGA Tour membership, and this tournament isn’t really a warm-up for a bigger tournament (the next WGC event is still three weeks away, and the Masters is almost two months away). I’ll attribute his entry this week to one of two things: he’s either bored, or he sees this week as a likely opportunity to capitalize on the weak field, get a win and a PGA Tour card.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Heath Slocum, Mark Wilson, James Nitties, Jerry Kelly
“Bench team”: Nick Dougherty, Blake Adams, Josh Teater, Chris Wilson

February continues to be an improved month for prognostications, as Dustin Johnson gave me my first picked winner of 2010. Alex Prugh finished in 27th despite the 9, and Mike Weir doubtless disappointed a lot of fans with his 52nd-place finish. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team climbed into the 85th percentile, with 1001 points.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Pebble Beach

Finally, some normalcy was restored to the PGA Tour on Sunday, when Steve Stricker won the Northern Trust Open. Stricker was a popular pick last week, and he not only came through for his fans, he also passed Phil Mickelson to become the #2 player in the world. As has been said by many before me (and likely many after), it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

The big surprise to come out of the NTO was Phil Mickelson’s 45th-place finish. Phil isn’t the fastest starter as each year begins, but he usually plays much better in California, and was the defending champion. Well, once again, “past performance is no indication of future results”.

The Tour now moves to picturesque Pebble Beach, for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. There are two guarantees this week: (1) Bill Murray will do something bizarre/stupid (depending on your style of humor); and (2) it will rain.

For predictions that are less than guaranteed, here are my players to watch this week:

Dustin Johnson. Defending champion this week, and he finished 3rd at the NTO last week. When it rains, his extra length off the tee will be even more of an asset.

Alex Prugh. I picked him last week, and I’m picking him again this week. He has three top-10's in his last three starts. I’m going to keep picking him until he gives me a reason not to.

Mike Weir. Disappointing performance at the NTO last week, but he has seven top-10's in his last ten starts at Pebble Beach, and he was the runner-up last year. Here’s hoping that in his case, past performance IS an indication of future results.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Alex Prugh, Mike Weir
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen, Charley Hoffman, Tim Clark

Last week’s predictions were a mixed bag. In addition to the aforementioned 45th-place finish by Mickelson, Scott McCarron missed the cut; then again, McCarron was picked more out of a desire to see a Phil-Scott duel than any faith in his play, past NTO results notwithstanding. But Alex Prugh did come through with that top-10. Prugh, along with first-day bench players Luke Donald and Dustin Johnson (promptly placed in the starting rotation after the first day), led my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to a welcome finish of 809 points, and into the 80th percentile. The year is starting to turn around!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Northern Trust Open

If anyone has correctly picked the last three winners on the PGA Tour, I’d like to talk to you in March about some basketball. Ryan Palmer, Bill Haas, and Ben Crane were certainly not on my radar, and I suspect most golf fans out there can say the same. So while the Tour moves to L.A. for the Northern Trust Open, and defending champion Phil Mickelson is the heavy favorite to repeat, the winner on Sunday may just as easily be somewhat far off the radar.

As I’m writing my predictions for this week, Great White’s “Once Bitten, Twice Shy” is playing on the radio, and it seems very appropriate given the success of my prognostications, or the glaring lack thereof, so far this year. But as I’m nothing if not stubborn, here are three players on my watch list for this week:

Phil Mickelson. Is there anyone out there who is picking against Phil this week? Cue the crickets...

Alex Prugh. His name rhymes with “Alex Who?”, and that’s what I was saying when he finished 5th at the Bob Hope Classic two weeks ago–and when he finished 5th again at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. It will be interesting to see how far the momentum will carry him.

Scott McCarron. Seriously. Phil Mickelson’s new BFF finished 10th at the Northern Trust last year. I’d just like to see the two of them playing together, preferably on Sunday; a little 18-hole throwdown might be good for ratings, too.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Phil Mickelson, K.J. Choi, Alex Prugh, Rickie Fowler
“Bench team”: Luke Donald, Fred Couples, Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker

Last week’s picks reached a new low, as two of the three (Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson) had early exits, and the third (Matt Jones) finished 54th. But top-10 finishes from Nick Watney and Lucas Glover helped my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to hold nearly steady, 630 points and 71st percentile. Here’s hoping for some better fortune this week!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Farmers Insurance Open

The Tour this week is in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open. For those who may have never heard of the tournament, it was sponsored by Buick last year. Whatever the name, Torrey Pines is the venue, and Phil Mickelson is heavily favored to win. But for those who don’t want to pick Phil this week, those who aren’t sure how much early-season rust is on his game, or those who just like to be contrary to the masses, here are a few other names to consider:

Bubba Watson. Bubba finished 7th at Torrey Pines last year, and was tied for second last week at the Bob Hope Classic.

Dustin Johnson. Dustin didn’t have a spectacular finish at Torrey Pines last year, but 19th is respectable, and he’s got the length to neutralize the 7500+ yard South Course.

Matt Jones. An out-of-the-box pick that many probably haven’t even heard of. Jones finished 5th at Torrey Pines last year, and finished 8th last week at the Bob Hope Classic.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Sutherland, Matt Jones
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Nick Watney, Lucas Glover, John Rollins

My pick for last week, Mike Weir, was a popular one, but he came through to some extent, finishing in 6th place. He and Ryan Moore helped boost my Yahoo Fantasy Golf points to 508, in the 72nd percentile, despite only having one B-level player going into the final round. Hopefully, this week will continue the positive momentum.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Bob Hope Classic

The Tour moves back to the mainland this week with the first event in the “California swing”, the Bob Hope Classic. This is the last remaining 90-hole event on the Tour.

My pick to win this week is a popular one, Mike Weir. Weir is a past champion at the event (2003) and tied for third in last year’s tournament.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Ryan Moore, Chad Campbell, Charles Howell III, Mike Weir
“Bench team”: Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, Scott Piercy, Paul Goydos

My 2010 predictions aren’t off to a great start this week. Last week’s picks, Kevin Na and K.J. Choi, finished 52nd and 39th, respectively, proving that “past performance is no guarantee of future results” indeed. But there’s still a lot of season left.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team finished the week with 338 points, in the 67th percentile, hampered especially by both of my C-level players (Matt Kuchar and Parker McLachlin) missing the cut, and keeping Steve Stricker benched for Zach Johnson in the final round. Oh well, there’s a lot more of the 2010 season left.

Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping the rain holds off!