Predictions: Pebble Beach

Finally, some normalcy was restored to the PGA Tour on Sunday, when Steve Stricker won the Northern Trust Open. Stricker was a popular pick last week, and he not only came through for his fans, he also passed Phil Mickelson to become the #2 player in the world. As has been said by many before me (and likely many after), it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

The big surprise to come out of the NTO was Phil Mickelson’s 45th-place finish. Phil isn’t the fastest starter as each year begins, but he usually plays much better in California, and was the defending champion. Well, once again, “past performance is no indication of future results”.

The Tour now moves to picturesque Pebble Beach, for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. There are two guarantees this week: (1) Bill Murray will do something bizarre/stupid (depending on your style of humor); and (2) it will rain.

For predictions that are less than guaranteed, here are my players to watch this week:

Dustin Johnson. Defending champion this week, and he finished 3rd at the NTO last week. When it rains, his extra length off the tee will be even more of an asset.

Alex Prugh. I picked him last week, and I’m picking him again this week. He has three top-10's in his last three starts. I’m going to keep picking him until he gives me a reason not to.

Mike Weir. Disappointing performance at the NTO last week, but he has seven top-10's in his last ten starts at Pebble Beach, and he was the runner-up last year. Here’s hoping that in his case, past performance IS an indication of future results.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Alex Prugh, Mike Weir
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen, Charley Hoffman, Tim Clark

Last week’s predictions were a mixed bag. In addition to the aforementioned 45th-place finish by Mickelson, Scott McCarron missed the cut; then again, McCarron was picked more out of a desire to see a Phil-Scott duel than any faith in his play, past NTO results notwithstanding. But Alex Prugh did come through with that top-10. Prugh, along with first-day bench players Luke Donald and Dustin Johnson (promptly placed in the starting rotation after the first day), led my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to a welcome finish of 809 points, and into the 80th percentile. The year is starting to turn around!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Farmers Insurance Open

The Tour this week is in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open. For those who may have never heard of the tournament, it was sponsored by Buick last year. Whatever the name, Torrey Pines is the venue, and Phil Mickelson is heavily favored to win. But for those who don’t want to pick Phil this week, those who aren’t sure how much early-season rust is on his game, or those who just like to be contrary to the masses, here are a few other names to consider:

Bubba Watson. Bubba finished 7th at Torrey Pines last year, and was tied for second last week at the Bob Hope Classic.

Dustin Johnson. Dustin didn’t have a spectacular finish at Torrey Pines last year, but 19th is respectable, and he’s got the length to neutralize the 7500+ yard South Course.

Matt Jones. An out-of-the-box pick that many probably haven’t even heard of. Jones finished 5th at Torrey Pines last year, and finished 8th last week at the Bob Hope Classic.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Sutherland, Matt Jones
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Nick Watney, Lucas Glover, John Rollins

My pick for last week, Mike Weir, was a popular one, but he came through to some extent, finishing in 6th place. He and Ryan Moore helped boost my Yahoo Fantasy Golf points to 508, in the 72nd percentile, despite only having one B-level player going into the final round. Hopefully, this week will continue the positive momentum.

Best of luck to all!