Predictions: Pebble Beach

Finally, some normalcy was restored to the PGA Tour on Sunday, when Steve Stricker won the Northern Trust Open. Stricker was a popular pick last week, and he not only came through for his fans, he also passed Phil Mickelson to become the #2 player in the world. As has been said by many before me (and likely many after), it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

The big surprise to come out of the NTO was Phil Mickelson’s 45th-place finish. Phil isn’t the fastest starter as each year begins, but he usually plays much better in California, and was the defending champion. Well, once again, “past performance is no indication of future results”.

The Tour now moves to picturesque Pebble Beach, for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. There are two guarantees this week: (1) Bill Murray will do something bizarre/stupid (depending on your style of humor); and (2) it will rain.

For predictions that are less than guaranteed, here are my players to watch this week:

Dustin Johnson. Defending champion this week, and he finished 3rd at the NTO last week. When it rains, his extra length off the tee will be even more of an asset.

Alex Prugh. I picked him last week, and I’m picking him again this week. He has three top-10's in his last three starts. I’m going to keep picking him until he gives me a reason not to.

Mike Weir. Disappointing performance at the NTO last week, but he has seven top-10's in his last ten starts at Pebble Beach, and he was the runner-up last year. Here’s hoping that in his case, past performance IS an indication of future results.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Alex Prugh, Mike Weir
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen, Charley Hoffman, Tim Clark

Last week’s predictions were a mixed bag. In addition to the aforementioned 45th-place finish by Mickelson, Scott McCarron missed the cut; then again, McCarron was picked more out of a desire to see a Phil-Scott duel than any faith in his play, past NTO results notwithstanding. But Alex Prugh did come through with that top-10. Prugh, along with first-day bench players Luke Donald and Dustin Johnson (promptly placed in the starting rotation after the first day), led my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to a welcome finish of 809 points, and into the 80th percentile. The year is starting to turn around!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Northern Trust Open

If anyone has correctly picked the last three winners on the PGA Tour, I’d like to talk to you in March about some basketball. Ryan Palmer, Bill Haas, and Ben Crane were certainly not on my radar, and I suspect most golf fans out there can say the same. So while the Tour moves to L.A. for the Northern Trust Open, and defending champion Phil Mickelson is the heavy favorite to repeat, the winner on Sunday may just as easily be somewhat far off the radar.

As I’m writing my predictions for this week, Great White’s “Once Bitten, Twice Shy” is playing on the radio, and it seems very appropriate given the success of my prognostications, or the glaring lack thereof, so far this year. But as I’m nothing if not stubborn, here are three players on my watch list for this week:

Phil Mickelson. Is there anyone out there who is picking against Phil this week? Cue the crickets...

Alex Prugh. His name rhymes with “Alex Who?”, and that’s what I was saying when he finished 5th at the Bob Hope Classic two weeks ago–and when he finished 5th again at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. It will be interesting to see how far the momentum will carry him.

Scott McCarron. Seriously. Phil Mickelson’s new BFF finished 10th at the Northern Trust last year. I’d just like to see the two of them playing together, preferably on Sunday; a little 18-hole throwdown might be good for ratings, too.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Phil Mickelson, K.J. Choi, Alex Prugh, Rickie Fowler
“Bench team”: Luke Donald, Fred Couples, Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker

Last week’s picks reached a new low, as two of the three (Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson) had early exits, and the third (Matt Jones) finished 54th. But top-10 finishes from Nick Watney and Lucas Glover helped my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to hold nearly steady, 630 points and 71st percentile. Here’s hoping for some better fortune this week!

Best of luck to all!