A belated congratulations to Derek Lamely, the winner on Monday in the rain-delayed Puerto Rico Open.
And now it’s on to Palm Harbor, site of the Transitions Championship. Alas, there will be no on-site reporting from this writer this week, as something called a “real job” tends to interfere with my Tour-chasing schedule. But I do have some picks for this week’s tournament.
Top pick, “chalk” edition: Steve Stricker. He’s the best player in the field, and he finished tied for 4th here last year.
Top pick, “sleeper” edition: Charlie Wi. The last time I picked Charlie, he rewarded me with a top-10 finish at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. I’m hoping he’ll do the same this week. He also finished tied for 4th here last year.
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4 : Charlie Wi, K.J. Choi, Charles Howell III, Matthew Goggin
“Bench team”: Steve Stricker, Kevin Na, Bo Van Pelt, Brendon de Jonge
Last week was a week of weak performances for most of my fantasy golf picks. Alvaro Quiros was my sole top-10 player, and while my “spotlight pick” of Camilo Villegas finished in a respectable 16th, the rest of my team was middling at best. I’m currently at 1515 points, in the 72nd percentile. Hopefully, this week will turn the momentum back in a positive direction.
Best of luck to all!
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Doral Diary: Sunday
The final day at Doral was sunny and beautiful. The wind was down from earlier in the week, though it was definitely still a factor. I not only “walked 26", I walked 27 today. I started out with Scott Verplank and Ross McGowan. After nine holes with them, I walked through the next two groups (Zach Johnson/Sergio Garcia and Brian Gay/Jason Dufner) and eventually walked the final four holes with Dustin Johnson and Kevin Na. After a break for lunch, I picked up my “usual suspect” Graeme McDowell and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano on their second nine and walked to the end. My observations:
* This is by far not the first time that I’ve mentioned it this week, but something MUST be done about slow play. I decided to forego a second nine with Verplank/McGowan largely out of frustration at their pace. There were times when I thought one of them was waiting for his lie to improve, or waiting for the right club to announce itself. Just hit the ball, guys; if it’s a bad lie, take your medicine and move on. As I walked ahead through the subsequent groups, I walked the entire par-5 12th hole without encountering a single player on the tee or on the green, and I wasn’t speed-walking. Kevin Na was pretty “deliberate” as well. Where’s John Paramore when we need him?
* Jason Dufner wins an award that no one wants to win from me: the Dude, There Are Children Present Award. Following a terrible shot on 13, he walked up the fairway letting loose a verbal tirade that featured two “F-bombs” and a few other high-level profanities, all of which were distinctly audible from at least 50 feet away. I understand frustration, but really wish that professionals would remember that there are often children within earshot and try to use a bit more discretion in their choice of words, or at least their volume level.
* It’s always nice to follow a player who’s having a great day, and being there for the second half of McDowell’s 66 was great. There was much cheering and general high energy. Unfortunately, Fernandez-Castano struggled at the same time and was clearly discouraged; it’s probably even tougher to have a bad day while your playing partner is having a good one.
* I was glad to see Ernie Els win the tournament. Ernie had been practicing late into the evenings after his rounds this week, and was at the course earlier in the mornings than most of his late-round counterparts. For those who counted him out, he’s still got a lot of game left.
It’s a sad thing to be leaving sunny south Florida and the golf course behind in the morning, but I’ll be reporting live again from Bay Hill for the final two rounds in two weeks. And, of course, my picks for the Transitions Championship will be up in a few days!
* This is by far not the first time that I’ve mentioned it this week, but something MUST be done about slow play. I decided to forego a second nine with Verplank/McGowan largely out of frustration at their pace. There were times when I thought one of them was waiting for his lie to improve, or waiting for the right club to announce itself. Just hit the ball, guys; if it’s a bad lie, take your medicine and move on. As I walked ahead through the subsequent groups, I walked the entire par-5 12th hole without encountering a single player on the tee or on the green, and I wasn’t speed-walking. Kevin Na was pretty “deliberate” as well. Where’s John Paramore when we need him?
* Jason Dufner wins an award that no one wants to win from me: the Dude, There Are Children Present Award. Following a terrible shot on 13, he walked up the fairway letting loose a verbal tirade that featured two “F-bombs” and a few other high-level profanities, all of which were distinctly audible from at least 50 feet away. I understand frustration, but really wish that professionals would remember that there are often children within earshot and try to use a bit more discretion in their choice of words, or at least their volume level.
* It’s always nice to follow a player who’s having a great day, and being there for the second half of McDowell’s 66 was great. There was much cheering and general high energy. Unfortunately, Fernandez-Castano struggled at the same time and was clearly discouraged; it’s probably even tougher to have a bad day while your playing partner is having a good one.
* I was glad to see Ernie Els win the tournament. Ernie had been practicing late into the evenings after his rounds this week, and was at the course earlier in the mornings than most of his late-round counterparts. For those who counted him out, he’s still got a lot of game left.
It’s a sad thing to be leaving sunny south Florida and the golf course behind in the morning, but I’ll be reporting live again from Bay Hill for the final two rounds in two weeks. And, of course, my picks for the Transitions Championship will be up in a few days!
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Doral Diary: Saturday
It was a beautiful day in Miami, much different from Friday. There was barely a cloud in the sky, the temperatures were warm (at least by Kentucky-March standards, if not Miami-March standards), and while the winds were high, they kept the heat and humidity from becoming oppressive. I went out with Geoff Ogilvy and Graeme McDowell today. My observations on the day:
* The crowds were about what I expected. Our group had only a few spectators, but I wasn’t expecting a large crowd; even with Ogilvy’s major championship and WGC history, he doesn’t seem to be a big crowd draw. The Villegas/Mickelson pairing was on an opposite hole to our group a few times, and the gallery following that group was quite large.
* Pace of play again became an issue on a few holes. We had to wait a few times, especially at the short par-4 16th. When we got there after the par-3 15th, the group in front of us hadn’t teed off, and we had to wait for them to play the complete hole before teeing off. I’m not sure if it was the slowness of that particular group (Adam Scott/Brian Gay) or the accumulated slowness of the groups in front of us (we were the 19th group off in the morning), but these delays seem to be getting worse almost every week.
* Geoff Ogilvy really is off his form right now. I was surprised to see him out-driven several times by McDowell, who isn’t a long hitter. He also hit three shots into the water during the round. His play wasn’t what I was expecting from a major champion and winner of multiple WGC titles.
* Annual tournaments often have their “usual suspects”, and I had one of those encounters this afternoon. The standard bearer for the group that I followed during the third round last year was back at work today. I’d befriended his mother the year before, and it was nice to catch up again today. The young man is quite a McDowell fan, so he was happy to get to walk with his favorite player for two years in a row.
* I usually stay behind or on-level with the players I’m following, but today I got a shot ahead of them at times, while talking with fellow spectators. On the 13th hole, I remembered why I usually don’t walk ahead. I was standing on the green with some new friends while the players teed off. Shortly after the first player teed off, another spectator (who was much taller than the rest of us and had better visibility) said, “Incoming!” We all ducked, and the ball landed about 4 feet in front of us; it came in at such an angle that, if we hadn’t ducked, it would have hit any or all of us. A minute later, the second player teed off, and the taller spectator said, “Here comes another one!” It was again duck-and-cover time, as the second tee shot was just as wayward and landed only a few feet in front of the first one. It was the first time I’d ever been “hit into”, so having it happen twice was an experience! Even stranger, one of the other spectators had actually been hit by a player during the first round; I think I know who to avoid standing next to now!
Tomorrow’s forecast is calling for another beautiful day. Let’s hope that the golf is beautiful as well!
* The crowds were about what I expected. Our group had only a few spectators, but I wasn’t expecting a large crowd; even with Ogilvy’s major championship and WGC history, he doesn’t seem to be a big crowd draw. The Villegas/Mickelson pairing was on an opposite hole to our group a few times, and the gallery following that group was quite large.
* Pace of play again became an issue on a few holes. We had to wait a few times, especially at the short par-4 16th. When we got there after the par-3 15th, the group in front of us hadn’t teed off, and we had to wait for them to play the complete hole before teeing off. I’m not sure if it was the slowness of that particular group (Adam Scott/Brian Gay) or the accumulated slowness of the groups in front of us (we were the 19th group off in the morning), but these delays seem to be getting worse almost every week.
* Geoff Ogilvy really is off his form right now. I was surprised to see him out-driven several times by McDowell, who isn’t a long hitter. He also hit three shots into the water during the round. His play wasn’t what I was expecting from a major champion and winner of multiple WGC titles.
* Annual tournaments often have their “usual suspects”, and I had one of those encounters this afternoon. The standard bearer for the group that I followed during the third round last year was back at work today. I’d befriended his mother the year before, and it was nice to catch up again today. The young man is quite a McDowell fan, so he was happy to get to walk with his favorite player for two years in a row.
* I usually stay behind or on-level with the players I’m following, but today I got a shot ahead of them at times, while talking with fellow spectators. On the 13th hole, I remembered why I usually don’t walk ahead. I was standing on the green with some new friends while the players teed off. Shortly after the first player teed off, another spectator (who was much taller than the rest of us and had better visibility) said, “Incoming!” We all ducked, and the ball landed about 4 feet in front of us; it came in at such an angle that, if we hadn’t ducked, it would have hit any or all of us. A minute later, the second player teed off, and the taller spectator said, “Here comes another one!” It was again duck-and-cover time, as the second tee shot was just as wayward and landed only a few feet in front of the first one. It was the first time I’d ever been “hit into”, so having it happen twice was an experience! Even stranger, one of the other spectators had actually been hit by a player during the first round; I think I know who to avoid standing next to now!
Tomorrow’s forecast is calling for another beautiful day. Let’s hope that the golf is beautiful as well!
Friday, March 12, 2010
Doral Diary: Friday
So much for “sunny Miami”! Even with tee times pushed up approximately three hours, weather was still an issue, especially for the later groups. I went off with the same group I followed yesterday (Graeme McDowell, Anthony Kim, Angel Cabrera), which was the last group off the 1st tee. My observations on the day:
* The energy level was higher today than it was yesterday afternoon. The galleries were larger, more like I’d been expecting the day before, and there were more exuberant reactions than during the first round. There seemed to be a lighter atmosphere, by and large, among the players as well.
Cabrera again had the largest following of the three players in the group I followed.
* The perfect photo that no one got (since spectators can’t have cameras during tournament rounds, and there were no media photographers around at the time): Angel Cabrera (a.k.a. “El Pato”, “The Duck”) walking up the 10th fairway, with an actual duck walking along beside him.
* The weather was the real story of the day, and being with the last group, I got to experience the worst of it. Shortly after making the turn, the rain began in earnest. The temperature quickly dropped 10-15 degrees (Fahrenheit), and a bit of wind made it almost chilly at times. Play was halted on the 13th green for several minutes, likely due to lightning. Play was halted again on the 17th tee, when the rain reached a level that severely reduced visibility. After several minutes of the second delay, the few remaining spectators at 17 were told that play was done for the day. Apparently, there was a restart at some later point, as those few players who were still on the course at the second delay did finish their second round by the end of the day. I’m sure they’re all glad not to have a super-early Saturday wake-up call!
* There are still good people out there. It was nice to see people with umbrellas volunteering to share space with those who didn’t have them. I benefitted tremendously from one such kind individual through most of the back nine.
* I will always pack my waterproofs when I travel to a tournament from now on, even if it’s in Abu Dhabi. Yes, this is one week that they didn’t go in the suitcase.
* Anthony Kim lightened up the mood a bit after the first delay, whether intentionally or not. When everyone was back at the 13th green to resume play, there was still a delay while waiting for other groups to get in place. We were all getting a bit impatient, waiting for the “go ahead” horn to sound. At one point, Kim started imitating the horn. A few minutes later, he asked the tour official, “Do I get a penalty if I go ahead and play now?” In case you’re wondering, the answer is “yes”.
* Speaking of impatience, let’s mention the pace-of-play issue. I’m not sure where this started, especially being part of the last group, but the waiting game was definitely in effect. We arrived at the first par-3 on the course to find that the group in front of us hadn’t even teed off yet. There was more waiting throughout the day. It’s likely that our group’s pace was fairly quick, with three players who are pretty aggressive and quicker players, but this is by far not the first tournament where backlogs have occurred.
This weekend’s forecast is for sunshine, and hopefully lots of good golf as well!
* The energy level was higher today than it was yesterday afternoon. The galleries were larger, more like I’d been expecting the day before, and there were more exuberant reactions than during the first round. There seemed to be a lighter atmosphere, by and large, among the players as well.
Cabrera again had the largest following of the three players in the group I followed.
* The perfect photo that no one got (since spectators can’t have cameras during tournament rounds, and there were no media photographers around at the time): Angel Cabrera (a.k.a. “El Pato”, “The Duck”) walking up the 10th fairway, with an actual duck walking along beside him.
* The weather was the real story of the day, and being with the last group, I got to experience the worst of it. Shortly after making the turn, the rain began in earnest. The temperature quickly dropped 10-15 degrees (Fahrenheit), and a bit of wind made it almost chilly at times. Play was halted on the 13th green for several minutes, likely due to lightning. Play was halted again on the 17th tee, when the rain reached a level that severely reduced visibility. After several minutes of the second delay, the few remaining spectators at 17 were told that play was done for the day. Apparently, there was a restart at some later point, as those few players who were still on the course at the second delay did finish their second round by the end of the day. I’m sure they’re all glad not to have a super-early Saturday wake-up call!
* There are still good people out there. It was nice to see people with umbrellas volunteering to share space with those who didn’t have them. I benefitted tremendously from one such kind individual through most of the back nine.
* I will always pack my waterproofs when I travel to a tournament from now on, even if it’s in Abu Dhabi. Yes, this is one week that they didn’t go in the suitcase.
* Anthony Kim lightened up the mood a bit after the first delay, whether intentionally or not. When everyone was back at the 13th green to resume play, there was still a delay while waiting for other groups to get in place. We were all getting a bit impatient, waiting for the “go ahead” horn to sound. At one point, Kim started imitating the horn. A few minutes later, he asked the tour official, “Do I get a penalty if I go ahead and play now?” In case you’re wondering, the answer is “yes”.
* Speaking of impatience, let’s mention the pace-of-play issue. I’m not sure where this started, especially being part of the last group, but the waiting game was definitely in effect. We arrived at the first par-3 on the course to find that the group in front of us hadn’t even teed off yet. There was more waiting throughout the day. It’s likely that our group’s pace was fairly quick, with three players who are pretty aggressive and quicker players, but this is by far not the first tournament where backlogs have occurred.
This weekend’s forecast is for sunshine, and hopefully lots of good golf as well!
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Doral Diary: Thursday
Doral Diary: Thursday
Due to some “real life” circumstances, I only managed nine holes of the first round at the WGC-CA Championship. I saw five or six groups tee off before following one of my “usual suspects”, Graeme McDowell, and playing partners Anthony Kim and Angel Cabrera for their second nine (holes 1-9, after the group started on #10). Some observations:
* The crowds were pretty sparse. Thursday usually is the low day for attendance, but this seemed to be lower than it was the previous year. Even the galleries following Phil Mickelson/Rory McIlroy/Retief Goosen and Camilo Villegas/Lee Westwood/Martin Kaymer were pretty small. I’m not sure if it was the “no-Tiger factor”, the threat of rain and thunderstorms in the weather forecast, or some other reason or combination of reasons.
* Speaking of weather, it was very windy out there. Out of the eight tournaments I’ve been to in the last couple of years, this was by far the windiest. Fortunately, the wind kept the temperatures from getting too hot. I felt a few raindrops from time to time, but serious rain and storms didn’t materialize. However, with a Friday forecast that looks more than a little ominous, tee times have been pushed up over three hours for the second round.
* There were only a handful of people walking with the group I followed this afternoon, and most of those were family members or media. Of the three players, Cabrera had the most spectator interest. I was surprised that Kim didn’t have a large following, as he’s a big TV draw.
* It wasn’t a beautiful nine holes of golf, and for long periods of time it was very, very quiet. When one or more players in a group are on an “off” streak, and when no one is making any spectacular moves, it can become almost eerily silent. The relative lack of spectators amplified that silence.
Hopefully, the energy level on the course, both from players and fans, will be higher tomorrow, and the weather will cooperate until the last putt drops!
Due to some “real life” circumstances, I only managed nine holes of the first round at the WGC-CA Championship. I saw five or six groups tee off before following one of my “usual suspects”, Graeme McDowell, and playing partners Anthony Kim and Angel Cabrera for their second nine (holes 1-9, after the group started on #10). Some observations:
* The crowds were pretty sparse. Thursday usually is the low day for attendance, but this seemed to be lower than it was the previous year. Even the galleries following Phil Mickelson/Rory McIlroy/Retief Goosen and Camilo Villegas/Lee Westwood/Martin Kaymer were pretty small. I’m not sure if it was the “no-Tiger factor”, the threat of rain and thunderstorms in the weather forecast, or some other reason or combination of reasons.
* Speaking of weather, it was very windy out there. Out of the eight tournaments I’ve been to in the last couple of years, this was by far the windiest. Fortunately, the wind kept the temperatures from getting too hot. I felt a few raindrops from time to time, but serious rain and storms didn’t materialize. However, with a Friday forecast that looks more than a little ominous, tee times have been pushed up over three hours for the second round.
* There were only a handful of people walking with the group I followed this afternoon, and most of those were family members or media. Of the three players, Cabrera had the most spectator interest. I was surprised that Kim didn’t have a large following, as he’s a big TV draw.
* It wasn’t a beautiful nine holes of golf, and for long periods of time it was very, very quiet. When one or more players in a group are on an “off” streak, and when no one is making any spectacular moves, it can become almost eerily silent. The relative lack of spectators amplified that silence.
Hopefully, the energy level on the course, both from players and fans, will be higher tomorrow, and the weather will cooperate until the last putt drops!
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Predictions: WGC-CA Championship
Greetings from lovely Doral, Florida, where the weather is like something out of a south Florida tourist brochure on this Wednesday afternoon. But before I can lounge by the hotel pool (yes, it is a tough life...), here are my picks for this week’s WGC-CA Championship.
Winner: Camilo Villegas. Yes, I’m going with “chalk”, but with a 3rd, an 8th, and a win in his last three starts, and a 5th-place finish at Doral, he seems like a pretty good one. Of course, that and the confidence that seemingly most of the golf world is putting in Camilo this week may prove to put the hex on him...
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4": Kenny Perry, Camilo Villegas, Alvaro Quiros, Soren Kjeldsen
“Bench team”: Anthony Kim, Nick Watney, Oliver Wilson, Angel Cabrera
I’ll be watching two of my bench players in action in the first two rounds, as I have plans to follow Kim, Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell for a portion of the first round and likely all of the second. (By the way, if you’re thinking of starting McDowell this week, don’t. I watched him play three rounds here last year, and it doesn’t seem to be the best course for his game. Of course, if the “announcer’s curse” works in reverse, I’ve probably just guaranteed GMac a top-10 finish.)
Last week’s Yahoo results left something to be desired. Despite top-10 finishes from both Charlie Wi and Fredrik Jacobson, I went into the weekend with only 3 of 8 players making the cut. I’m currently in the 73rd percentile, with 1365 points.
Best of luck to all! Now, about that mai tai....
Winner: Camilo Villegas. Yes, I’m going with “chalk”, but with a 3rd, an 8th, and a win in his last three starts, and a 5th-place finish at Doral, he seems like a pretty good one. Of course, that and the confidence that seemingly most of the golf world is putting in Camilo this week may prove to put the hex on him...
My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4": Kenny Perry, Camilo Villegas, Alvaro Quiros, Soren Kjeldsen
“Bench team”: Anthony Kim, Nick Watney, Oliver Wilson, Angel Cabrera
I’ll be watching two of my bench players in action in the first two rounds, as I have plans to follow Kim, Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell for a portion of the first round and likely all of the second. (By the way, if you’re thinking of starting McDowell this week, don’t. I watched him play three rounds here last year, and it doesn’t seem to be the best course for his game. Of course, if the “announcer’s curse” works in reverse, I’ve probably just guaranteed GMac a top-10 finish.)
Last week’s Yahoo results left something to be desired. Despite top-10 finishes from both Charlie Wi and Fredrik Jacobson, I went into the weekend with only 3 of 8 players making the cut. I’m currently in the 73rd percentile, with 1365 points.
Best of luck to all! Now, about that mai tai....
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Best Golfers Under 30: Says Who?
Thanks to Janky for inspiring this entry!
It seems like there are as many “best pro golfers under 30" lists as there are commentators (or perhaps even more). An underlying question is: How do we determine the best? It seems that everyone has their own criteria, and their own weighting.
To start off the debate, here are the top 5 pro golfers under 30, courtesy of the Official World Golf Ranking (as of February 28):
1. Martin Kaymer
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Sean O’Hair
4. Camilo Villegas
5. Hunter Mahan
The rankings are based on points given for finishes and field strength, on a two-year cycle, that makes the FedEx Cup system seem crystal-clear; I was a math geek in school and currently deal with data and statistics in “real life”, and I still don’t really understand it, so I won’t venture a more detailed explanation.
But is this system the way to determine “the” list of the best golfers under 30? What about a ranking system for the rest of us? I spent some time looking at those under-30's who are in the top 100 of the world rankings, considering them on the basis of three factors: wins, consistency of performance, and major performances.
Is number of wins the way to rank the best golfers under 30? I think most golf fans would agree, “a win is not always a win”. If number of wins were all that mattered, Japanese teen phenom Ryo Ishikawa would be the best. Ishikawa has seven wins–all in Japan, in events that are by and large much weaker than PGA and European Tour events. How do Martin Kaymer’s five European Tour wins, all in relatively strong events, compare with Charl Schwartzel’s five wins, the two most recent in weaker-field events? Stateside, how would Camilo Villegas’s three PGA Tour wins, all in stronger events, compare with Dustin Johnson’s three wins, one of which came in a Fall Series event? Would a player with two stronger-field events, such as Anthony Kim, be ranked close to or even above a three-win player such as Johnson, if one of those three wins came in a weak-field event?
What about those tournaments that don’t result in a win? How much do top-10 finishes count? Can a winless player with multiple top-10's in any given year, such as Kevin Na or Oliver Wilson, be counted in the “best players” category?
And what about performances in majors? How much does that factor into the ranking, especially since no player currently under age 30 has won a major? Two players currently under 30 had top-10 finishes in two majors in 2009 (Rory McIlroy and Hunter Mahan). Ross Fisher led all four majors in 2009 at one point, but only managed one top-10 finish; how does that compare against McIlroy and Mahan?
For what it’s worth, here is my top 5. I put a lot of weight into wins (qualified by strength of field), followed by performance in majors, top-10 finishes outside of wins, career consistency, and a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor:
1. Martin Kaymer. 5 wins in relatively strong-field European Tour events, a 6th-place finish in the 2009 PGA Championship, and a win earlier this year in Abu Dhabi.
2. Sean O’Hair. O’Hair gets the nod over other three-win players due in part to seven top-10 finishes in addition to his win at Quail Hollow in 2009. One of those was a 10th at the Masters, and three others were in FedEx Cup playoff events.
3. Camilo Villegas. Villegas definitely has the highest “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor, with a 3rd in the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and 8th in the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and a win at the Honda Classic in the last three weeks. All of his three wins have come in events with relatively strong fields.
4. Dustin Johnson. Johnson is the third player with three PGA Tour wins. He also finished 10th in the 2009 PGA Championship and so far has one win (Pebble Beach) in 2010. He finishes behind Villegas due to his first win being at a weaker-field Fall Series event.
5. Hunter Mahan. This was the toughest one to pick. Mahan gets the nod for several reasons: his win at Phoenix last month earns “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” points; his six top-10 finishes last year included two majors (10th in the Masters, 6th in the U.S. Open) and one WGC event (4th at Bridgestone); and he’s come through in the clutch at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup recently. Two career wins also put him ahead of McIlroy, who has tremendous upside but one win.
Let the debate begin!
It seems like there are as many “best pro golfers under 30" lists as there are commentators (or perhaps even more). An underlying question is: How do we determine the best? It seems that everyone has their own criteria, and their own weighting.
To start off the debate, here are the top 5 pro golfers under 30, courtesy of the Official World Golf Ranking (as of February 28):
1. Martin Kaymer
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Sean O’Hair
4. Camilo Villegas
5. Hunter Mahan
The rankings are based on points given for finishes and field strength, on a two-year cycle, that makes the FedEx Cup system seem crystal-clear; I was a math geek in school and currently deal with data and statistics in “real life”, and I still don’t really understand it, so I won’t venture a more detailed explanation.
But is this system the way to determine “the” list of the best golfers under 30? What about a ranking system for the rest of us? I spent some time looking at those under-30's who are in the top 100 of the world rankings, considering them on the basis of three factors: wins, consistency of performance, and major performances.
Is number of wins the way to rank the best golfers under 30? I think most golf fans would agree, “a win is not always a win”. If number of wins were all that mattered, Japanese teen phenom Ryo Ishikawa would be the best. Ishikawa has seven wins–all in Japan, in events that are by and large much weaker than PGA and European Tour events. How do Martin Kaymer’s five European Tour wins, all in relatively strong events, compare with Charl Schwartzel’s five wins, the two most recent in weaker-field events? Stateside, how would Camilo Villegas’s three PGA Tour wins, all in stronger events, compare with Dustin Johnson’s three wins, one of which came in a Fall Series event? Would a player with two stronger-field events, such as Anthony Kim, be ranked close to or even above a three-win player such as Johnson, if one of those three wins came in a weak-field event?
What about those tournaments that don’t result in a win? How much do top-10 finishes count? Can a winless player with multiple top-10's in any given year, such as Kevin Na or Oliver Wilson, be counted in the “best players” category?
And what about performances in majors? How much does that factor into the ranking, especially since no player currently under age 30 has won a major? Two players currently under 30 had top-10 finishes in two majors in 2009 (Rory McIlroy and Hunter Mahan). Ross Fisher led all four majors in 2009 at one point, but only managed one top-10 finish; how does that compare against McIlroy and Mahan?
For what it’s worth, here is my top 5. I put a lot of weight into wins (qualified by strength of field), followed by performance in majors, top-10 finishes outside of wins, career consistency, and a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor:
1. Martin Kaymer. 5 wins in relatively strong-field European Tour events, a 6th-place finish in the 2009 PGA Championship, and a win earlier this year in Abu Dhabi.
2. Sean O’Hair. O’Hair gets the nod over other three-win players due in part to seven top-10 finishes in addition to his win at Quail Hollow in 2009. One of those was a 10th at the Masters, and three others were in FedEx Cup playoff events.
3. Camilo Villegas. Villegas definitely has the highest “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor, with a 3rd in the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and 8th in the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and a win at the Honda Classic in the last three weeks. All of his three wins have come in events with relatively strong fields.
4. Dustin Johnson. Johnson is the third player with three PGA Tour wins. He also finished 10th in the 2009 PGA Championship and so far has one win (Pebble Beach) in 2010. He finishes behind Villegas due to his first win being at a weaker-field Fall Series event.
5. Hunter Mahan. This was the toughest one to pick. Mahan gets the nod for several reasons: his win at Phoenix last month earns “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” points; his six top-10 finishes last year included two majors (10th in the Masters, 6th in the U.S. Open) and one WGC event (4th at Bridgestone); and he’s come through in the clutch at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup recently. Two career wins also put him ahead of McIlroy, who has tremendous upside but one win.
Let the debate begin!
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