Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Predictions: Shell Houston Open

Congratulations to Ernie Els, who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Monday afternoon; as I mentioned in my post from Sunday, if you’re superstitious and inclined to wagering, you might want to make a wager on him for the Players Championship in May.

But now it’s on to Texas, for the Shell Houston Open. Most predictors that I’ve read have mentioned Paul Casey and Fred Couples as two players to watch, and I’m no exception. Casey is the defending champion, and Couples finished 3rd here last year. Casey has three top-10 finishes in stroke-play events this year, two within the last month, as well as a runner-up finish at the WGC-Accenture Match Play. Couples has three wins in four starts on the Champions Tour this season. Both are bringing a lot of positive momentum into Houston.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4 : Bubba Watson, Fred Couples, Lee Westwood, Paul Casey
“Bench team”: Ernie Els, Hunter Mahan, Andres Romero, Nick O’Hern

The “prediction hex” was on last week, as my two spotlight players, Nick Watney and Graeme McDowell, finished 64th and MC, respectively.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 1813 points, 75th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Notes from Bay Hill: Sunday

So much for sunny central Florida! The weather today ranged from almost chilly (early in the day) to nice to windy to threatening. I walked 19 today, 4 with Charles Howell III, Rod Pampling, and Marc Leishman, followed by 15 with Paul Goydos, Garrett Willis, and Ricky Barnes (I walked #6 twice). Groups went off split tees; “my” first group was the first of the groups off #1, the second the last of the groups off #10. Some notes from the day:

* The big story of the day was the weather, which halted play around 2:30 p.m. There will be a Monday finish. The interruption wasn’t very surprising to me; the sun really never came out, and by late on the first nine with the Goydos/Willis/Barnes group, I was already noting the sky with some concern. Somewhere around the 3rd hole, Willis told members of his family that there was talk that the course would likely be evacuated in an hour’s time. I heard the first faint rumble of thunder at the 6th tee, so when I got to the parking lot near the midpoint of the 6th hole, I called it a day. Play was apparently suspended not much later.

* A related issue that came out after the suspension was: Could something have been done to get everyone in before the weather got bad? Could the tee times have started earlier (8:24 was the earliest of the day)? Perhaps, though I don’t think there would have been enough daylight to go with the 7:30 start that some suggested. One thing that could have been done: monitor and enforce pace of play. Today was just short of glacial. This wasn’t due to “my” group at all; in fact, they were all pretty vocal about their frustration with the slow play in front. We were literally waiting on almost every shot for the group ahead of us to play. I suspect by that point it was an accumulated delay of the 11 groups in front of us, but where’s John Paramore when you really need him?

* A somewhat amusing incident from #14: As Willis was walking off the green, he asked the scorekeeper to talk to a rules official and get him some Advil. Goydos, right behind him, said that he thought he had something like that in his bag. As he was removing the bottle from the pocket of his golf bag, Willis asked, “What’s the expiration date on that??” It turns out that the label design was so outdated that he was sure it was expired; sure enough, it was, by at least a year. Time to clean out the golf bag?

* The first group I followed was silent. The second group almost never stopped talking. I prefer the latter; much more entertaining as a spectator. What do they talk about out there? Anything and everything. The NCAA basketball tournament was a popular topic this weekend, not surprisingly.

Unfortunately, that “real job” thing will keep me from being on-course for the finish on Monday, so no “live” reporting on the end. I will say this: if Ernie Els does win, you might want to put down a wager (if you’re the wagering kind) on him at The Players in May. Why? For those superstitiously inclined: if Ernie does win at Bay Hill, he will have won at my two “live tournaments” so far in 2010; The Players will be the third of those. (Of course, a better reason would be: he’s playing really well.)

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Notes from Bay Hill: Saturday

Sometimes the proverbial “journey of a thousand miles” doesn’t always turn out as expected. It looks like that will be my “thought of the week” for this tournament, and I probably am not alone. Saturday was a beautiful day in Orlando, sunny and reasonably warm, but the scores on the golf course were anything but lovely. Only six players in the field managed to shoot in the 60's, three couldn’t break 80, and the number of high-70's rounds is enough to bring a U.S. Open leaderboard to mind. This was my first round at Bay Hill, so I can’t say whether there is just something about the course (though #17 seems to be especially diabolical in design, and several other holes are “interesting”), whether it was the wind (up, but not as high as Doral a few weeks ago), or something else that made today especially unpleasant for players.

I got to the course in the late morning and watched 15-20 players at varying points on the front nine, before deciding to walk with the pairing of Joe Ogilvie and Paul Goydos. That was definitely not a pairing for those who are sensitive to bad rounds, as the final scores for the day were 79 and 82. There were a few miscues (Goydos trying to go over the wide part of the water on #6 being a notable one; that shot would have been challenging for all but the longest hitters, even more so for one who gives up a lot of yardage off the tee to most of his competitors), but overall it was just “one of those days” for both of the guys, where the putts don’t quite go in, the shot doesn’t quite go where it was supposed to, etc.

My “Seriously???” Award goes to the owner of one of the houses off what I think was the 8th green (possibly the 9th). Like many of the residents in the area, they were having a party while watching the tournament from the comfort of their home. Unlike the other residents, they were having a party with a DJ–and a public-address system. While “our” group was trying to putt, all of a sudden over the loudspeaker a voice blares: “Okay, it’s time for tequila shots!!!” The players were rightly incensed, as were the spectators. This went on for several minutes. Apparently, the owners of the house were given a “cease and desist” order shortly thereafter, thankfully. That kind of thing isn’t fair to the players; general party noise is unavoidable, but broadcasting over a loudspeaker is another matter entirely.

You can insert any of my pace-of-play rants from Doral here, and they would fit nicely. Waiting was the name of the game once again. At least once, we were waiting for the group ahead of us, who were waiting for the group ahead of them. On the par-5 16th, at one point three different groups were playing the hole, and none of them were on the green yet. There was one player known to be slow a few groups ahead, but this seemed to be an issue even further “upstream”.

Sam Saunders had quite a gallery following him. No surprise there.

I did have a “King Sighting”. While waiting (again) to tee off on #11, Mr. Palmer came within 15 feet or so, driving a golf cart with Mrs. Palmer. Lots of people just watched as he went by, and most of them were smiling, as was I.

With the anticipation of bad weather arriving on Sunday afternoon, final-round tee times have been pushed up, and the players will go off split tees in groups of three. The last groups tee off at 10:19 a.m., so they should be finished before the worst of the storms arrive in mid-to-late afternoon.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Predictions: Bay Hill

First, congratulations to Jim Furyk for his win on Sunday at the Transitions Championship. That big “whoosh” that you may be hearing is PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem breathing a sigh of relief that Furyk joins Els, Poulter, and Villegas as recent winners who might be recognizable to the more casual golf fan.

Another congratulations goes out to Team Lake Nona, for successfully defending their Tavistock Cup title on Tuesday, winning for the first time at Isleworth. Isleworth’s Nick O’Hern took the Payne Stewart Salver Award for lowest individual score, with a course-record-tying 65.

Now on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. The course was the most challenging non-major course in 2009, and while it has returned to a par-72 from last year’s par-70, it’s sure to have its challenges still awaiting a very strong field. I’ve got two “spotlight players” this week:

* Nick Watney. Watney finished 4th here last year, and also 4th at Tampa last week. His 2010 season started a bit slower than I’d expected, but he seems to be coming around now.

* Graeme McDowell. Regular readers know that I’m a bit partisan toward McDowell, but this is actually the first time I’ve picked him in 2010. His season also took a bit of time to warm up, but his game currently looks very solid. He played reasonably well here through the first two rounds last year, before fading on the weekend; however, his game seems to be holding up better through four rounds this year than it was at this point last year.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf picks don’t feature a lot of the popular picks (Stricker, Mickelson, Dustin Johnson); I’ve used many of them several times already this year, and saving them for tournaments where I feel they’ll be better used.

“Front 4": Zach Johnson, Nick Watney, Robert Allenby, Graeme McDowell
“Bench team”: Stephen Ames, Pat Perez, Retief Goosen, John Senden

Last week was a pretty good week for picks. My spotlight players, Steve Stricker and Charlie Wi, finished 8th and 20th, respectively, and K.J. Choi proved an especially good B-pick, with his runner-up finish. My Yahoo team now has 1675 points, in the 76th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Predictions: Transitions Championship

A belated congratulations to Derek Lamely, the winner on Monday in the rain-delayed Puerto Rico Open.

And now it’s on to Palm Harbor, site of the Transitions Championship. Alas, there will be no on-site reporting from this writer this week, as something called a “real job” tends to interfere with my Tour-chasing schedule. But I do have some picks for this week’s tournament.

Top pick, “chalk” edition: Steve Stricker. He’s the best player in the field, and he finished tied for 4th here last year.

Top pick, “sleeper” edition: Charlie Wi. The last time I picked Charlie, he rewarded me with a top-10 finish at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. I’m hoping he’ll do the same this week. He also finished tied for 4th here last year.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4 : Charlie Wi, K.J. Choi, Charles Howell III, Matthew Goggin
“Bench team”: Steve Stricker, Kevin Na, Bo Van Pelt, Brendon de Jonge

Last week was a week of weak performances for most of my fantasy golf picks. Alvaro Quiros was my sole top-10 player, and while my “spotlight pick” of Camilo Villegas finished in a respectable 16th, the rest of my team was middling at best. I’m currently at 1515 points, in the 72nd percentile. Hopefully, this week will turn the momentum back in a positive direction.

Best of luck to all!

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Doral Diary: Sunday

The final day at Doral was sunny and beautiful. The wind was down from earlier in the week, though it was definitely still a factor. I not only “walked 26", I walked 27 today. I started out with Scott Verplank and Ross McGowan. After nine holes with them, I walked through the next two groups (Zach Johnson/Sergio Garcia and Brian Gay/Jason Dufner) and eventually walked the final four holes with Dustin Johnson and Kevin Na. After a break for lunch, I picked up my “usual suspect” Graeme McDowell and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano on their second nine and walked to the end. My observations:

* This is by far not the first time that I’ve mentioned it this week, but something MUST be done about slow play. I decided to forego a second nine with Verplank/McGowan largely out of frustration at their pace. There were times when I thought one of them was waiting for his lie to improve, or waiting for the right club to announce itself. Just hit the ball, guys; if it’s a bad lie, take your medicine and move on. As I walked ahead through the subsequent groups, I walked the entire par-5 12th hole without encountering a single player on the tee or on the green, and I wasn’t speed-walking. Kevin Na was pretty “deliberate” as well. Where’s John Paramore when we need him?

* Jason Dufner wins an award that no one wants to win from me: the Dude, There Are Children Present Award. Following a terrible shot on 13, he walked up the fairway letting loose a verbal tirade that featured two “F-bombs” and a few other high-level profanities, all of which were distinctly audible from at least 50 feet away. I understand frustration, but really wish that professionals would remember that there are often children within earshot and try to use a bit more discretion in their choice of words, or at least their volume level.

* It’s always nice to follow a player who’s having a great day, and being there for the second half of McDowell’s 66 was great. There was much cheering and general high energy. Unfortunately, Fernandez-Castano struggled at the same time and was clearly discouraged; it’s probably even tougher to have a bad day while your playing partner is having a good one.

* I was glad to see Ernie Els win the tournament. Ernie had been practicing late into the evenings after his rounds this week, and was at the course earlier in the mornings than most of his late-round counterparts. For those who counted him out, he’s still got a lot of game left.

It’s a sad thing to be leaving sunny south Florida and the golf course behind in the morning, but I’ll be reporting live again from Bay Hill for the final two rounds in two weeks. And, of course, my picks for the Transitions Championship will be up in a few days!

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Doral Diary: Saturday

It was a beautiful day in Miami, much different from Friday. There was barely a cloud in the sky, the temperatures were warm (at least by Kentucky-March standards, if not Miami-March standards), and while the winds were high, they kept the heat and humidity from becoming oppressive. I went out with Geoff Ogilvy and Graeme McDowell today. My observations on the day:

* The crowds were about what I expected. Our group had only a few spectators, but I wasn’t expecting a large crowd; even with Ogilvy’s major championship and WGC history, he doesn’t seem to be a big crowd draw. The Villegas/Mickelson pairing was on an opposite hole to our group a few times, and the gallery following that group was quite large.

* Pace of play again became an issue on a few holes. We had to wait a few times, especially at the short par-4 16th. When we got there after the par-3 15th, the group in front of us hadn’t teed off, and we had to wait for them to play the complete hole before teeing off. I’m not sure if it was the slowness of that particular group (Adam Scott/Brian Gay) or the accumulated slowness of the groups in front of us (we were the 19th group off in the morning), but these delays seem to be getting worse almost every week.

* Geoff Ogilvy really is off his form right now. I was surprised to see him out-driven several times by McDowell, who isn’t a long hitter. He also hit three shots into the water during the round. His play wasn’t what I was expecting from a major champion and winner of multiple WGC titles.

* Annual tournaments often have their “usual suspects”, and I had one of those encounters this afternoon. The standard bearer for the group that I followed during the third round last year was back at work today. I’d befriended his mother the year before, and it was nice to catch up again today. The young man is quite a McDowell fan, so he was happy to get to walk with his favorite player for two years in a row.

* I usually stay behind or on-level with the players I’m following, but today I got a shot ahead of them at times, while talking with fellow spectators. On the 13th hole, I remembered why I usually don’t walk ahead. I was standing on the green with some new friends while the players teed off. Shortly after the first player teed off, another spectator (who was much taller than the rest of us and had better visibility) said, “Incoming!” We all ducked, and the ball landed about 4 feet in front of us; it came in at such an angle that, if we hadn’t ducked, it would have hit any or all of us. A minute later, the second player teed off, and the taller spectator said, “Here comes another one!” It was again duck-and-cover time, as the second tee shot was just as wayward and landed only a few feet in front of the first one. It was the first time I’d ever been “hit into”, so having it happen twice was an experience! Even stranger, one of the other spectators had actually been hit by a player during the first round; I think I know who to avoid standing next to now!

Tomorrow’s forecast is calling for another beautiful day. Let’s hope that the golf is beautiful as well!