Prediction: Omega Mission Hills World Cup

I don’t often make pre-tournament predictions of who I think will win a tournament (usually, I just have my “top picks”), but in the case of the Omega Mission Hills World Cup, I’m making an exception. Here are my predictions for the top two teams:

The winner: Team Ireland, Graeme McDowell and Rory McIlroy. McIlroy is coming off yet another top-10 finish in the Dubai World Championship and a runner-up finish in the Race to Dubai, so the odds are already pretty good that he’ll put up a good showing in China this week. But after watching he and McDowell team up in the Vivendi Trophy a few months ago, I said that they would be the World Cup champions. They seem to be one of those teams that are nearly a “match made in heaven”, and while it’s still early, they could well be the next Ryder Cup “power pairing”, a la Olazabal/Ballesteros or Clarke/Westwood. I predict that Irish eyes will be smiling on Sunday.

The runner-up: Team England, Ross Fisher and Ian Poulter. Fisher and Poulter both have wins in the last few weeks: Fisher won the Volvo World Match Play Championship the same week that Poulter won the Barclays Singapore Open. They may be the most solid team in the field, in terms of each individual’s performance lately. Ireland gets my nod because they’re more established as a pairing, but I think England will keep it very close and very interesting down to the wire.

Congratulations to Lee Westwood

Congratulations to Lee Westwood, who today won both the Dubai World Championship and the European Tour’s Race to Dubai (previously known as the Order of Merit). Westwood went into the final tournament of the European Tour season in second place on the R2D, behind Rory McIlroy; he then proceeded to play nearly flawless golf, slamming the door with a final-round 64 that was the best round of the entire tournament by anyone in the field. This is the second time Westwood has one the Tour’s money title, having previously captured the OM in 2000. The former top-5 player in the world, who thereafter slipped below 200 before mounting a comeback in the last few years, is poised to make a run at the top once again. At 36, he likely has at least a decade of top-caliber golf left, probably resulting in at least one more money title, many more phenomenal Ryder Cup showings, and perhaps even a major or two. Well done, Lee, and all the best for 2010!

There’s something about Rory

After enough “will he or won’t he” reports and speculations to make even Brett Favre tired, 20-year-old Rory McIlroy announced last week that yes, he will be joining the PGA Tour in 2010. The end result is a bit anticlimactic; McIlroy has already been playing the majors, the WGC events, and a few other tournaments in the same time frame, so PGA Tour membership will only add a handful of tournaments to his U.S. schedule.

So how will Rory McIlroy do on the PGA Tour? As far as this armchair analyst is concerned, he’ll do just fine. He’s been under the spotlight for a few years already, and is living up to the hype. In 2009, he had a win over a strong field in Dubai, 5th place in the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and top-10 finishes in both the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship. I met McIlroy at Doral in March, at the WGC-CA Championship, and was as impressed with his personality as I was with his game. He is confident without being cocky, and displays a greater maturity than many players several years his senior. That will likely serve him even better than a 300-yard drive as he embarks on his PGA Tour career.

Will he win on the PGA Tour in 2010? I’ll give him 50-50 odds (which is better than I’d give any other PGA rookie this year); a lot will depend on which tournaments and courses he chooses to play. I will predict that he has top-10 performances in at least three of the four majors this year. And if the crowds I witnessed this year are any indication, he’ll also have dozens of teenage and pre-teen girls following his every move more closely than any golf writer!

Last week’s predictions

2009 ended on a low note, as far as my prognostications go, but as they say on the course, “that’s golf.” We’ll see what awaits in 2010.

Rickie Fowler: T-40
David Toms: T-29
David Duval: MC

Congratulations (a few days late)

Congratulations to last weekend’s winners: Stephen Ames at the Children’s Miracle Network Classic, Tiger Woods at the JBWere Masters, Gregory Bourdy at the Hong Kong Open, and Michelle Wie at the Lorena Ochoa Invitational. Well done to all, and the best for 2010!

Pre-Thanksgiving leftovers...

It's still a couple of weeks until Thanksgiving, but it's time for some leftovers.

First of all, leftover congratulations from Sunday go to Phil Mickelson, for winning the WGC-HSBC Champions in Shanghai. Phil tends to let the latter part of the season slide, but with this win added to his Tour Championship title and success in the President's Cup, he's ending 2009 on a high note, at least on the course. Hopefully, the success and good fortune will also extend to Amy and to Phil's mother in their battles against breast cancer.

And now for some leftover picks. My picks for this week's PGA Tour Children's Miracle Network Classic are leftover from the rain-cancelled Viking Classic. Hopefully, they'll find better luck this week!

Rickie Fowler. Is there any player on the Tour who’s got more of the “hot hand” than Fowler right now? The 20-year-old, who has only played a handful of events as a professional, has two top-10's in his last two starts. If his form continues, he may join the elite ranks of players who are able to qualify for full Tour membership in their first full year without having to go to Q-school.

David Toms. Toms is one of the strongest players in this field. He has seven top-10's so far this year. Is there any reason not to pick him?

David Duval. Yes, you read that right. After several years as a punchline, Duval’s game is coming back, and he’s currently at 125th on the money list. But for those who analyze potentially meaningless trends, there’s another reason to pick Duval: two of the three Fall Series events so far have been won by Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Matt Kuchar at Turning Stone, Troy Matteson at the Frys.com Open). Could DD make it three out of four for the Ramblin’ Wreck?

A distinction no one wants

Someone had to be the first, and it was Doug Barron. An announcement came his afternoon that Barron is the first player to violate the PGA Tour’s anti-doping policy. The drug that caused the violation has not been announced. Barron is facing a one-year suspension from the Tour and a $500,000 fine, in a year when he made exactly zero dollars in one PGA Tour and four Nationwide Tour starts. Had Barron made any money on Tour in 2009, that money would have gone into escrow. The severity of the penalties is clearly meant to show that the Tour means business.

Perhaps Barron’s most noteworthy moment on Tour came during the 2006 Chrysler Classic, when he removed his shirt, but left his trousers on, while hitting a shot from a water hazard. Now he’s making headlines for yet another reason other than his game.

Some fans out there might take some solace in the fact that the first player “caught” isn’t a high-profile player (to say the least). Some might even say that this shows that perhaps “performance enhancing drugs” are a non-issue in golf. Perhaps they’re right. However, when the first baseball players under the “new get tough policy” started coming to light, they were also lesser-known players; eventually, some higher-profile names did start to surface. Will the same thing happen in golf? I’m sure that most, if not all, fans hope not. However, it would be naive to say that Barron will definitely be an isolated individual case, or that a well-known player will never be caught in violation. Major-league baseball has taught us that much.

This week's congratulations

Barclays Singapore Open: Ian Poulter won the weather-plagued Barclays Singapore Open, vaulting him into the top 20 in the world rankings. When Poulter’s game is on, he can be nearly as brilliant as he is fashionable. Let’s see if this latest victory is a sign of greater things to come.

Volvo World Match Play: Ross Fisher won the Volvo World Match Play, soundly defeating Anthony Kim 4&3. Fisher joins fellow Englishman Poulter in the world’s top 20 in a year that saw him lead the combined scoring stat in this year’s majors. It would not be surprising to see one, if not both, of this week’s European Tour winners take home major trophies in 2010.

Rainy-day wonderings...

Last week’s Viking Classic in Mississippi was literally a washout. Torrential rains left the course unplayable, and the year’s next-to-the-last PGA tournament was cancelled, with no rescheduling. Interestingly enough, the final tournament on the schedule is two weeks after the Viking, leaving an open week of improved weather, during which it would likely be possible to play a tournament. There have been some decent explanations on why the tournament wasn’t just rescheduled for the open week, mainly dealing with financial and scheduling factors, but I have to wonder if the lack of marquee names also played a part in the decision. John Daly and David Duval are probably the biggest names who were in the scheduled field for the Viking. If Tiger Woods and/or Phil Mickelson had been scheduled to tee it up in Mississippi, would we be seeing tee times for this Thursday? I suspect we would be. In the meantime, the people of Mississippi and those players who are fighting to get or keep their cards just got a lot more rain dumped on their parade, literally.

About that bulletin board...

There’s a lot of talk, especially in the NFL and other “marquee” sports, about “bulletin-board material”: a player or team uses an opponent’s trash talk as motivation to deliver a beatdown on said trash-talker. There isn’t as much talk about it in golf, though Tiger Woods has on several occasions seemingly used comments by his fellow players as motivation to teach said talkers a lesson. Just ask Steven Ames and Rory Sabbatini. It seems that Tiger now has company in the “bulletin board” club, in the person of Anthony Kim. Kim’s controversy with Robert Allenby is well-known, and in their first meeting since the President’s Cup, Kim delivered a sound beatdown to Allenby. Not only did Kim make seemingly every putt, but he refused to concede a single one of Allenby’s putts, even those within commonly-considered “gimme” range. The lesson to be learned here: if you’re going to be playing Anthony Kim, don’t give him any bulletin-board material. You’ll only hurt yourself.