Predictions: U.S. Open

After a brutally hot and humid week in Memphis, the PGA Tour now moves to much-cooler Pebble Beach for the U.S. Open. The scenery will be breathtaking, and we can hope that the golf will be, too.

I’ve got a line-up heavy on the “chalk picks” this week, with one total “flier” thrown in for good measure.

A-level picks:
Starter: Luke Donald. An all-around good player, in very good form after his recent win in Europe. He’ll be a popular pick this week.

Bench (at least for Thursday): Phil Mickelson. I like Phil at Pebble Beach. I don’t particularly like Phil at a U.S. Open. If his short game is magic, he’ll be “starting” later in the week. Otherwise, it won’t be boring, but it won’t be pretty, either.

No-way pick: Tiger Woods. I don’t know which Tiger will show up. Until there’s more consistency in his game, he’s off my line-ups.

B-level picks:
Starters: Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson. Westwood and every other player who was in the sweat-fest Sunday at TPC Southwind gets a slight downgrade for recovery factor, but I still think Lee will put up a solid finish—top-10, but probably not a win. As for Dustin, he’s won the regular Tour stop at Pebble Beach the last two years. Yes, the course will be playing differently than it did in February, but it’s still the same course.

Bench: Nick Watney, Jim Furyk. Watney was my pre-season pick for this tournament; I’ve cooled on him a bit after a lackluster start to his 2010 season, but not enough to take him completely off the board. Furyk’s hard to pick against in any major, though I was one of many who was stung by his MC at Augusta.

No-way picks: Robert Allenby, Rory McIlroy. I wouldn’t have picked Allenby this week under most circumstances—a balky putter is the last thing one needs at a U.S. Open—but his MC, WD the last two weeks is only adding to my concerns about the current state of his game. McIlroy has his own putting woes at times, and gets further downgraded by the “Memphis factor”.

C-level picks:
Starter: Ben Crane. Another player in very good form lately. I look for that to continue.

Bench: Gareth Maybin. Maybin is a total flier for me, but with so much “chalk”, why not? He’s a decent-enough European Tour player from Northern Ireland, and could be surprisingly good. Then again, he could also miss the cut by a dozen strokes.

No-way pick: Graeme McDowell. Regular readers know that I really like McDowell’s game, and that I’m regularly following him at events. He does have very good GIR stats. However, he also has extremely weak scrambling and sand-save percentages (his PGA Tour rank, were he a member, would be somewhere in the 170’s); add that to a putter that runs hot-and-cold and the fact that he’s never finished higher than 30th in a U.S. Open, and I have to stay away this week.

Last week's results:
An indifferent week. Of my “three to watch”, Heath Slocum was the best, with a 6th-place finish. David Toms finished 29th, and Robert Allenby withdrew halfway through the first round due to illness. Current Yahoo Fantasy Golf stats: 3305 points, 79th percentile.

Until next time, best of luck to all!

On-course report: St. Jude Classic, Sunday

Congratulations to Lee Westwood, the 2010 St. Jude Classic champion! Lee won on the fourth playoff hole, defeating both Robert Garrigus and Robert Karlsson. While I was cheering for Westwood all week (I didn’t pick him, because I wasn’t sure about his lack of course knowledge and how he might be affected by the hot and humid conditions, but was still cheering for him to win), my heart went out to Garrigus to some extent. On the 72nd hole of a tournament that would likely be his first win, holding a three-shot lead, he went into total “train-wreck” mode, resulting in a triple-bogey; when his drive on the first playoff hole landed under a tree, his tournament was over. Hopefully, he’ll have more chances to win, and soon!

I knew the weather would be as bad today as it had been yesterday (and, in fact, it was worse), so I decided to get to the course relatively early and follow whichever group was on the first tee when I arrived. That group was Rich Barcelo and Charles Warren, neither of whom I’d ever seen play before (and I’d never even heard of Barcelo). Following a mix-up at the ropes on the sixth tee, I stayed back and followed the next group, Dean Wilson and Jonathan Byrd, through the remainder of the front nine. After that, the heat and humidity got to be a bit more than I liked, so I sat in a shady spot near the 10th tee and watched most of the rest of the groups come through. Some observations from the day:

* Most of the players were very polite and went out of their way to tell the volunteers how much they appreciated them today. That’s something I see at a lot of events, but it never fails to impress me.

* There were some horrendous scores out there today (81's from Maggert and Wittenberg, 82 from Chad Campbell). Southwind isn’t an easy course, but I didn’t see any reason why there were quite a few big numbers out there.

* How hot was it? On the 6th tee, Jonathan Byrd already had a wet towel over his head. This was probably around 9:30 a.m.

* Speaking of wet towels, if there had been a few wet-towel concession stands, I would have been broke long before finishing 9 holes!

* Boo Weekley had the biggest gallery that I saw (I missed John Daly’s gallery, which apparently is always the largest here); Rory McIlroy’s was a close second. Rory’s fans got to “awww...” as he kissed his girlfriend at the 10th tee.

* The crowds seemed to be down this year from last year. I think the weather had a lot to do with it; it was hot last year, but it was 7-8 degrees hotter each day this year.

All in all, a weekend well-spent. The next “live report” will come in two months, from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in Akron, Ohio.

On-course report: St. Jude Classic, Saturday

I’m in Memphis this weekend, for the last two rounds of the 2010 St. Jude Classic. This is my second trip to Memphis in as many years, and I was pleased to find that the volunteers are as nice as they were in 2009 (some of the nicest I’ve met out there). On the other hand, the heat and humidity are not only as high as they were one year ago, they’re higher: mid-90's Fahrenheit, with high humidity pushing the heat index to around 105. It’s brutal out there.

I only made it 9 holes today; like many of the players this week, I’ve been a bit under the weather and decided not to push it through 18 in the hostile weather conditions. I started on the 10th tee with the group of Padraig Harrington, Charles Howell III, and Phil Tataurangi. At the 13th green, it was time to stop for a while, finish the first 20-ounce bottle of water, and pick up a later group, which ended up being the group of Fredrik Jacobson, Billy Mayfair, and Dicky Pride. I followed that group through the finish. Some thoughts on the round:

* Padraig Harrington has a deserved reputation as a slower player, but he was playing pretty close to normal speed today. Perhaps he was as ready to get through the round and off the course as everyone else.

* I’d never heard of Phil Tataurangi before today, and if today’s round was any indication, I can see why I’d never heard of him. He was consistently far behind his playing partners off the tee. On the par-3 11th hole, that shortness found him in the hazard and led to a double-bogey. On the next hole, he promptly found the hazard again, and another double-bogey. Apparently, the rest of his day wasn’t much better, as he finished with a 12-over par 82 on the day.

* There is nothing pretty about Fredrik Jacobson’s swing. It doesn’t look pretty on TV, and it looks just as bad in person. Even his set-up looks “off”. On the other hand, he usually gets pretty good results, and that’s the important thing.

* Speaking of things that aren’t pretty, Jacobson’s triple at the 15th was a train wreck. His tee shot ended up under a tree, with more trees in front of him. In attempting to go under a branch with the 2nd shot, he clipped the branch and landed well-short of where he’d planned. His 3rd shot came close to the green, but bounced off the bank and into the hazard. For reasons that elude me (and likely everyone else), he elected to try to hit the ball out of the hazard and avoid incurring a penalty stroke. The spectators in the area were practically taking bets on whether he would fall in the water (he stood on the bank on some very soft and not-so-stable ground; a player with more weight might not have had that option). The ball came out of the water by a few inches, before falling back in. After the penalty drop, shot #6 landed on the green, and he one-putted for the 7.

* Billy Mayfair has some very vocal fans in the hospitality tents. Every time he made a putt on a hole with a hospitality area, he was greeted with loud cheers. It didn’t matter if it was for par or birdie.

Until tomorrow...

Predictions: St. Jude Classic

After missing last week due to some "off-the-course" issues, I'm back with my picks for the St. Jude Classic. I'll be reporting "live" from Memphis after the final two rounds, so stay tuned on Saturday and Sunday. The food and music will be great, and hopefully the weather will be better than last year!

Three players I'm watching closely this week:

* Heath Slocum. He had a top-10 here last year, and I'm expecting the same this year.

* David Toms. He's won twice here, and was runner-up last year. Hard not to pick him this week.

* Robert Allenby. Yes, I've got Allenby on the bench for the first round, instead of starting. Ordinarily, he'd be a sure-thing starter, with top-5's in the last two years here. However, I've got serious questions about his mental game at this point, and his two-day-only showing at Memorial did nothing to alleviate those concerns. If he turns it around early, he'll start in later rounds.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:

"Front 4": Heath Slocum, David Toms, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
"Bench team": Jason Dufner, Robert Allenby, Brian Gay, John Senden

Current Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 3157 points, 81st percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Colonial

First of all, congratulations to last week’s winners: Jason Day at the Byron Nelson, Simon Khan at the BMW PGA, Sun Young Yoo at the Sybase, and John Riegger at the Rex Hospital Classic. And congratulations as well to 16-year-old Jordan Spieth, for his top-20 finish at the Byron Nelson; I was impressed by his play, and even more by his maturity.

Now the PGA Tour moves just a few miles down the road, to Fort Worth for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial. Some players I’ll be watching this week are:

* Jason Day. He played well here last year. I’ll be interested to see if he goes into this week with positive momentum from last week’s win, or if there’s a bit of a “victory hangover”.

* Kevin Na. Also a good history here at Colonial. I was expecting more out of Na this year than he’s showed so far (I did predict he’d get a win this year); I’ll be interested to see if his solid play on this course continues, or if it’s another sign of an “off” year.

* Tim Clark. Another player with a solid history at Colonial. Now that he has that first win under his belt, will subsequent wins be easier or more difficult to come by?

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:

“Front 4”: Jason Day, Jim Furyk, Kevin Na, Paul Casey
“Bench team”: Steve Marino, Kevin Sutherland, Rod Pampling, Tim Clark

Now that we’re well into the season, the 10-start maximum in the Yahoo game is starting to come into play with making weekly selections. Phil Mickelson is a solid A-level pick, but I’ve used him a lot already this year, and will save him for bigger events. I consider Casey/Clark to be nearly a toss-up this week, and have more starts remaining for Casey; but Clark’s too intriguing to pass up, and he might end up getting into the starting lineup before the week is over.

After another indifferent week, my Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings are: 2847 points, 78th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Byron Nelson

Congratulations to last week's winners: Adam Scott at the Valero Texas Open, Peter Hanson in Mallorca, Justin Hicks at the BMW Charity Pro-Am, and Se Ri Pak at the Bell Micro LPGA Classic.

The PGA Tour now moves to the Dallas area, with the HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Las Colinas. I don't have any "spotlight picks" this week, because I'm honestly not bullish about anyone in the field. But for those playing Yahoo Fantasy Golf, here are my picks for the week:

"Front 4": Scott Verplank, Brian Davis, James Nitties, John Senden
"Bench team": D.A. Points, Briny Baird, Rory Sabbatini, Ben Crane

Last week was a decent week for picks: "spotlight player" Bo Van Pelt finished 28th, and Fredrik Jacobson was the runner-up. Unfortunately, some not-so-great A and C-level picks left my Yahoo team with just the B-listers on the weekend. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2743 points, 79th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Valero Texas Open

First of all, on a serious note, sympathies go out to the family and friends of LPGA player Erica Blasberg, who died this weekend at age 25.

Now on to this week’s event, the Valero Texas Open. It’s being held on a new course this week, the TPC San Antonio.

My top picks of the week:

* Bo Van Pelt. Three top-10's in a row for Bo. Can he make it four?

* Fredrik Jacobson. While the course was different, Fredrik did finish 5th in last year’s event. He’s coming off a 10th-place finish at The Players last week.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf lineup for this week is:
“Front 4": Zach Johnson, Bo Van Pelt, Fredrik Jacobson, Paul Goydos
“Bench team”: Justin Leonard, Charley Hoffman, James Driscoll, Chris Stroud

Last week was another somewhat indifferent week for picks. Ben Crane did finish 4th, but Jim Furyk was 47th and Stephen Ames, 58th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings so far: 2651 points, 81st percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Players Championship: Wrap-up

As expected, Friday’s birthday celebrations delayed any reporting on the second round; and Saturday’s brutal heat and humidity, combined with a late tee time, delayed reporting on the second round. So here are some tidbits from the final three rounds of the Players Championship:

* It’s not every day that you see someone shoot a 65. It’s also not every day that you seem someone shoot an 80. What are the odds that the two happen in the same group? That happened Friday: Graeme McDowell shot 65, playing partner Matthew Goggin shot 80. Goggin’s disastrous round was largely set in motion when he took a 9 on the par-4 4th hole: 2nd shot over the green, 3rd back over the green and into the water, 5th a flop shot that didn’t find land, and two putts. Ouch.

* Speaking of #4... #17 at Sawgrass gets a lot of publicity, but I think #4 is at least as cruel, perhaps more so this year (as 17 seems to be playing relatively easy this year). Players in groups that I’ve followed each of the first three days have found the water. Dry land for both players on Sunday.

* Speaking of water, it pays to know the caddies. During Saturday’s and Sunday’s rounds, one of the caddies in the group that I followed kept me well-supplied with ice-cold (and free) water from the tee-box coolers. Of course, this also led me to be the recipient of some very strange looks from my fellow spectators, who were wondering just who this girl is who’s getting free water from the caddie and isn’t wearing any kind of wife/girlfriend/family/guest credentials. I’m always very nice to the caddies of the players that I follow on a regular basis, greeting them by name each day and asking how they’re doing. I’ve seen plenty of spectators talking to players, but have never seen another one talking to a caddie.

* There hasn’t been much of a slow-play issue this week. There have been a few short waits on the tee box on par-3's, but no hitting-in issues from groups behind, and no lengthy waits for groups ahead.

* Those last three holes (16-18) are great watching if you’re a seated spectator. They are not fun to navigate if you’re trying to follow a group, especially late in the day, when most of the spectators are “overserved”.

* I didn’t see the guy get tased on Friday. I’ve seen some people that I would like to see meet the same fate, however.

* After walking 18 with a group on Sunday, I watched the last two hours of the tournament at a local restaurant/bar with some friends–four from Ireland, one from England, and myself the lone American (though after a week in largely Irish company, I have quite an accent myself now).We were cheering for Westwood and pretty well-shocked at his back-nine implosion.

* We were even more shocked at Tim Clark’s 67. Sunday wasn’t a day for low scores, by and large. All the more kudos to Tim.


* Henrik Stenson’s jacket–what can be said about that?

* I got the news about Tiger’s withdrawal while walking up #5 fairway. Let’s just say that not all the players were heartbroken about it.

* Keep an eye on Robert Allenby. I think his game is going to take a dramatic turn in the second half of the season, though in which direction I don’t know.

* And once again, congratulations to 2010 Players Champion Tim Clark. What a way to make that first win a big one! Let’s see what the rest of the year holds for him.

I’ll next be “live” on the course for the final two rounds of the St. Jude Classic in Memphis in June. Until next time...

Thursday at Sawgrass

It was a sunny, very warm, and very humid Thursday at TPC Sawgrass. I followed an early group today and was still dripping sweat by the #3! Paul Goydos, J.P. Hayes, and Charl Schwartzel showcased some very different games, but it was fun watching. Some observations:

* In the year since my last trip to Sawgrass, I’d forgotten just how beautiful the course is. I’d also forgotten just how tough it is to walk. For those who haven’t been there, it’s even more beautiful than it looks on TV. It’s also the toughest course I’ve ever walked, with lots of high-grade elevation changes.

* I’m still not sure what to make of Schwartzel. I’d never been terribly impressed with his game (yes, he has wins, but largely in weaker-field events) until Doral. I didn’t see any real flashes of greatness today, though he’s a solid player overall. One thing he does have is a big drive; true, his playing partners aren’t long hitters, but he “outdrove” them with his 3-wood on at least one occasion.

* Goydos proved that a big drive wasn’t a necessity to score well at Sawgrass; his irons were spot-on, putting him closer to the pin than his playing partners on many holes.

* Hayes could have been at least three strokes better today if his putting had cooperated.

* I was admittedly a bit disappointed that none of the three hit the water on 17. The fans around 17 were, too. Perhaps not surprisingly, spectators do have wagers on players as they approach the tee, on whether they’ll find land or not.

* The crowds weren’t as big as I was expecting today. Perhaps that had to do with the position of the group I was following: Phil Mickelson was several groups ahead, and Tiger was in the afternoon wave.

* I was pleased that pace of play wasn’t as much of an issue today as in many recent rounds. There was no waiting until the back nine, and not much after that. While pace did slow toward the end of the round, it seemed to be due more to the increasing heat and humidity than to player backlog.

* The course didn’t seem to have as many “teeth” today, and the low scores bore that out. It will be interesting to see if the scores stay low, or if they go higher as the week goes on.

Tomorrow is not only the second round, it’s also my 35th birthday; plans for festivities are still taking shape, so there may or may not be a “round 2" column tomorrow. So until either tomorrow or Saturday...

Predictions: Players Championship

Sunny Florida is anything but this Wednesday afternoon, at least on I-10 heading east toward Jacksonville and Ponte Vedra. But indoors now and just a few miles from TPC Sawgrass, I'm ready to make my picks for the Players Championship.

My three "spotlight players" this week are Stephen Ames, Jim Furyk, and Ben Crane. All three have turned in some good performances here in Ponte Vedra; Ames is the 2nd-leading money winner at TPC, and Furyk and Crane both had top 10's last year.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:

"Front 4": Stephen Ames, Jim Furyk, Henrik Stenson, Ben Crane
"Bench team": Phil Mickelson, Kevin Na, Brian Davis, Ian Poulter

Last week's picks weren't great. Stuart Appleby was my only "spotlight player" to make the cut, and he finished in 69th. Hopefully, this week will be better. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2521 points, 82nd percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Sunday Evening Takeaway: May 2

Congratulations to this week’s winners: Alvaro Quiros at the Open de Espana, Rory McIlroy at the Quail Hollow Championship, Martin Piller at the Athens Classic, and David Eger at the Mississippi Gulf Coast Classic. Some bits of takeaway from this week:

* Rory McIlroy makes the cut on the number, then goes 66-62 on the weekend to win his first PGA Tour title. This is the Rory most of us expected to see this season. Injury delayed his “arrival” of sorts, but he’s definitely “here” now and making a statement. McIlroy turns 21 on Tuesday; with that milestone combined with his win, I’d dare say that there will be some serious partying going on in Ponte Vedra in a few days!

* I’m not terribly surprised that Tiger Woods missed the cut; most professionals do miss cuts from time to time. What did surprise me is just how badly Woods played, especially on Friday. He seemed to be having shoulder issues at one point, so maybe that had something to do with it. I’m not going to chalk it up to “what he’s been through”; this wasn’t his first round back on the course. Unless he is in fact injured, I expect to see him playing relatively solidly at Ponte Vedra next week.

* Ryo Ishikawa shot a 58 on Sunday in a Japan Tour event. Yes, the course was only 6500 yards, and the field was weak, but no one else has shot 58 in this particular event. It’s impressive.

* It was definitely unexpected to see Billy Mayfair and Paul Goydos at the top of the leaderboard for most of the week in Charlotte. It wasn’t as unexpected to see them both fade on Sunday. Hopefully, there are better final rounds for both of them at some point this season.

* I enjoy watching Ricky Fowler playing and playing well. I do not enjoy the head-to-toe orange ensemble; having seen him play live at Bay Hill, I can testify that it’s even brighter in person.

Speaking of “live”, I’ll be reporting from Ponte Vedra starting on Thursday, with some on-course (and possibly off-course) notes on The Players Championship. Until then...

Predictions: Quail Hollow

This week, the PGA Tour is off to Charlotte, North Carolina, and the Quail Hollow Championship. With a course that is pegged a future major venue by many, and a field boasting most of the top players on the Tour (the most notable absence being the still-injured Steve Stricker), this week’s tournament is sure to be worth a watch.

My “spotlight players” for this week:

* Tiger Woods. Quail Hollow isn’t the Masters: tickets are available to the general public, so it will be interesting to see if any of the patrons have special greetings for Tiger, and if so, how he reacts. I’m more interested in seeing how his game looks, now that he has one tournament under his belt for 2010.

* Jason Dufner. Dufner helped my fantasy team out tremendously last week, with a 7th-place finish in New Orleans. He was 5th at Quail Hollow last year.

* Stuart Appleby. Are his back-to-back top-10's at Hilton Head and New Orleans a sign that his game really is coming back? We’ll see.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Jason Dufner, Lucas Glover, Camilo Villegas, Stuart Appleby
“Bench team”: Tiger Woods, Sean O’Hair, Lee Westwood, Angel Cabrera

Last week was another mid-range week for picks. David Toms and Charles Howell III showed some promise early on, but finished in a lackluster 28th and 43rd, respectively. Steve Marino’s missed-cut-not-even-close disappointed a lot of prognosticators. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2444 points, 82nd percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Sunday Evening Takeaway: April 25

Congratulations to this week’s winners: Marcus Fraser at the Ballantine’s Championship, Jason Bohn at the Zurich Classic, and Ewan Porter at the South Georgia Classic. A few bits of takeaway from this week:

* Mother Nature can be cruel. The Ballantine’s was shortened to a 54-hour event, and the Zurich and South Georgia both had significant weather delays. Such is the peril of an outdoor sport...

* It was a good week for guys to get back in the winner’s circle. Fraser’s last win came in 2003, Bohn’s last win in 2005.

* Jason Bohn celebrated his 37th birthday this week. A trophy, a two-year Tour exemption, and a bit over a million dollars are all very nice birthday presents.

* Stuart Appleby gets his second top-10 finish in two weeks. Two or three years ago, this wouldn’t be news. Is he back? I’d say it’s too soon to tell, but signs are encouraging.

* Speaking of lost games, Sergio Garcia might want to check out the Unclaimed Baggage Center in Scottsboro, Alabama, to see if his golf game is there. It sure isn’t with him on the course right now. He seems to be heading into the early stages of “Duval Syndrome”; though, if I had to put down money on one of the two right now, I’d go with Duval.

Until next week...

Predictions: Zurich Classic

Laissez les bon temps roulez! Grab your beignets, etouffee, and a favorite beverage, because this week the Tour is in New Orleans for the Zurich Classic. Early-week favorites Steve Stricker and Ian Poulter have both withdrawn with injuries, so the field is set to yield up some surprising names at the top of the leaderboard.

My “spotlight players” for this week:

* Steve Marino. He had a top-5 finish here last year, and two top-5's so far this season. He’s got to win sometime, and it might as well be this week.

* Charles Howell III. He was runner-up here last year, and has three top-10's so far this season. He played well early at Hilton Head last week, before fading over the weekend.

* David Toms. He also finished in the top 5 here last year. He hasn’t made any waves so far this season, due in part to shoulder trouble, but this is a virtual home game for him, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t “show up”.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Steve Marino, Charles Howell III, David Toms, Jerry Kelly
“Bench team”: Jason Dufner, Rory Sabbatini, Briny Baird, Ben Crane

Last week was a decent week for picks. Luke Donald came in 3rd, and my “dark horse” pick of Tim Wilkinson was a respectable 22nd. Defending Heritage champion Brian Gay’s 32nd-place finish was disappointing, however. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2298 points, 80th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Hasta luego, Lorena...

The big news in the golf world this afternoon came from the LPGA. Number one women’s player Lorena Ochoa has announced that she is retiring from professional golf. Ochoa will hold a press conference on Friday where she will likely talk about her reasons for retirement, as well as the timetable (will it be immediate, at season’s end, or some other time?).

Ochoa’s announcement didn’t come as a huge surprise to this writer, at least; she’d been candid for some time about potentially retiring early to focus on family life. I wouldn’t have been very surprised if she’d announced at the end of last season that she was stepping away for a while, especially in light of her marriage at the end of 2009. I was surprised by the timing–April, during the LPGA season. I suspect this will mean that her actual retirement date will fall within the 2010 season (some reports say it will be effective immediately, but no date has been confirmed yet).

I applaud Ochoa for focusing on her own priorities, despite the pressure she might face (and will undoubtedly face after today’s announcement) to keep playing as long as she’s on top. This is ultimately her decision to make, and only she can decide what is best for her life. I wish her and her family all the best as they go forward into whatever new challenges life has for them.

Of course, I join many out there in saying that it’s hopefully just “hasta luego, Lorena”, and not a permanent “adios”...

Sunday Evening Takeaway: April 18

Congratulations to this week’s winners: Y.E. Yang at the Volvo China Open,Kevin Chappell at the Fresh Express Classic, and Jim Furyk at the Verizon Heritage. A few bits of takeaway from this week:

* Yang’s game has been improving at pretty much an exponential rate over the last two seasons. It will be interesting to see what lies ahead for him in the next few years.

* After Furyk won in Tampa four weeks ago, I thought he was “back”. His first-round 80 at the Masters had me doubting that. After watching him this week, I’m going to consider Augusta an aberration and say that he really is “back”.

* Another week, another top-10 for Ricky Barnes. I’m not on the Ricky bandwagon yet, but I’ll be watching his next few tournaments very closely.

* Brian Davis gave us another example of why golf is considered a “gentleman’s game”. Literally on the beach on the first playoff hole, Davis barely brushed a loose impediment on his backswing. He immediately called a rules official over, explained the situation, and ultimately incurred a two-stroke penalty. He didn’t attempt to justify himself or explain it away, or even wait for someone else to catch it before self-reporting. Perhaps Michelle “I lost my balance” Wie could benefit from a talk with Brian.

Until next week...

Predictions: Heritage

Like many golf fans out there, I’m still nursing a bit of a “Masters hangover” this Tuesday evening, so this week may be a bit of a letdown. But the PGA Tour marches on, and this week’s tournament is the Verizon Heritage in lovely Hilton Head Island, South Carolina.

My “spotlight players” for this week:

* Luke Donald. Runner-up here last year, and two top-10's so far this year (Northern Trust, Travelers).

* Brian Gay. Defending champion. I was expecting more out of him at Augusta last week, but still optimistic about his chances to repeat this week.

* Tim Wilkinson. He finished 6th here last year. He’s completely off the map right now, but could factor as a “surprise/dark horse” pick if he finds the form he had here in 2010.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
“Front 4": Luke Donald, Brian Gay, Lee Janzen, Davis Love III
“Bench team”: Heath Slocum, K.J. Choi, Rod Pampling, Tim Wilkinson

Last week was a good week for picks. My “spotlight” pro, Hunter Mahan, finished in 8th place, and Italian amateur Matteo Manassero (“spotlight” #2) finished a respectable 36th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 2163, 81st percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Masters Musings

Congratulations to Phil Mickelson, the 2010 Masters champion. To me, this was one of the best Masters tournaments in a long time: the leaderboard was packed with big names and big storylines, there were eagles and birdies galore, and the outcome was unknown until the final hole. Some of my thoughts from the week:

* The first day was a trip down memory lane, with Fred Couples and Tom Watson on top of the leaderboard. These were the players I grew up watching, and to see them still contending in a major–well, let’s just say it’s been a few years–later was something that doesn’t happen in many other sports. Freddie remained in contention until well into Sunday, proving that while he’s dominating the Champions Tour right now, he’s still got the game to play with the “young guys” sometimes, too.

* Rory McIlroy’s missed cut didn’t surprise me very much; I’d talked to Rory’s parents at Doral, and they had mentioned then that he was a bit tired. It looks like the decision to play both the PGA and European tours this year might not have been the greatest idea. Jim Furyk’s missed cut, largely set up by a Thursday 80, did surprise me. We’ll see if that was a momentary aberration, or if there are signs that his game isn’t all the way back yet.

* Matteo Manassero is the real deal. The 16-year-old amateur not only made the cut, he finished in 36th place, ahead of past champions Zach Johnson and Mike Weir, among others. He’ll turn pro soon, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he wins an event before the end of the year.

* Ricky Barnes, after falling off the map following his amateur days, is starting to “show up” in majors. If he can play that way in regular Tour events as well (and show some consistency), he’ll start living up to those predictions of greatness from 2003.

* Tiger’s 4th-place finish was better than I was expecting (I had expected him to finish in the 11-25 range). I didn’t really see much of a difference in mannerisms between the “new Tiger” and the “old Tiger”, nor much of a difference in play. Remember, he hasn’t won at Augusta in five years.

* Lee Westwood has never been the world’s greatest putter. The flat stick may have cost him yet another major on Sunday.

* Phil Mickelson was my pre-season pick for the Masters, though I had my doubts after the somewhat shaky start to his 2010 season. He definitely earned the title, especially over the last two rounds. It would have been hard not to cheer for Phil after all of the trials his family has been through with Amy’s and his mother’s cancer battles. Well done, Mr. Mickelson; you gave us a great story with a happy ending this Sunday evening.

Predictions: Masters

Predictions: Masters

Congratulations to Anthony Kim, who won last week’s Shell Houston Open.

Now on to Augusta, for the Masters. The big question for predictions is: To pick Tiger, or not to pick Tiger? I’m holding off for this week, until I see more of the state of his game.

My “spotlight players” for the week:

* Hunter Mahan. He finished in the top 10 at Augusta last year. The missed cut last week at Houston is a slight concern, but he’s been playing reasonably well this year, including a win in Phoenix.

* Matteo Manassero. The Italian amateur is scheduled to turn pro this spring, at the tender age of 16. He seems to be the real deal.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week:
“Front 4": Steve Stricker, Hunter Mahan, Lee Westwood, Matt Kuchar
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Brian Gay, Oliver Wilson, Mike Weir

Last week wasn’t a great one for picks. One of my “spotlight players”, Paul Casey, was a late withdrawal with a shoulder injury, and the other, Fred Couples, came in 55th. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 1929 points, 73th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Shell Houston Open

Congratulations to Ernie Els, who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Monday afternoon; as I mentioned in my post from Sunday, if you’re superstitious and inclined to wagering, you might want to make a wager on him for the Players Championship in May.

But now it’s on to Texas, for the Shell Houston Open. Most predictors that I’ve read have mentioned Paul Casey and Fred Couples as two players to watch, and I’m no exception. Casey is the defending champion, and Couples finished 3rd here last year. Casey has three top-10 finishes in stroke-play events this year, two within the last month, as well as a runner-up finish at the WGC-Accenture Match Play. Couples has three wins in four starts on the Champions Tour this season. Both are bringing a lot of positive momentum into Houston.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4 : Bubba Watson, Fred Couples, Lee Westwood, Paul Casey
“Bench team”: Ernie Els, Hunter Mahan, Andres Romero, Nick O’Hern

The “prediction hex” was on last week, as my two spotlight players, Nick Watney and Graeme McDowell, finished 64th and MC, respectively.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf standings: 1813 points, 75th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Notes from Bay Hill: Sunday

So much for sunny central Florida! The weather today ranged from almost chilly (early in the day) to nice to windy to threatening. I walked 19 today, 4 with Charles Howell III, Rod Pampling, and Marc Leishman, followed by 15 with Paul Goydos, Garrett Willis, and Ricky Barnes (I walked #6 twice). Groups went off split tees; “my” first group was the first of the groups off #1, the second the last of the groups off #10. Some notes from the day:

* The big story of the day was the weather, which halted play around 2:30 p.m. There will be a Monday finish. The interruption wasn’t very surprising to me; the sun really never came out, and by late on the first nine with the Goydos/Willis/Barnes group, I was already noting the sky with some concern. Somewhere around the 3rd hole, Willis told members of his family that there was talk that the course would likely be evacuated in an hour’s time. I heard the first faint rumble of thunder at the 6th tee, so when I got to the parking lot near the midpoint of the 6th hole, I called it a day. Play was apparently suspended not much later.

* A related issue that came out after the suspension was: Could something have been done to get everyone in before the weather got bad? Could the tee times have started earlier (8:24 was the earliest of the day)? Perhaps, though I don’t think there would have been enough daylight to go with the 7:30 start that some suggested. One thing that could have been done: monitor and enforce pace of play. Today was just short of glacial. This wasn’t due to “my” group at all; in fact, they were all pretty vocal about their frustration with the slow play in front. We were literally waiting on almost every shot for the group ahead of us to play. I suspect by that point it was an accumulated delay of the 11 groups in front of us, but where’s John Paramore when you really need him?

* A somewhat amusing incident from #14: As Willis was walking off the green, he asked the scorekeeper to talk to a rules official and get him some Advil. Goydos, right behind him, said that he thought he had something like that in his bag. As he was removing the bottle from the pocket of his golf bag, Willis asked, “What’s the expiration date on that??” It turns out that the label design was so outdated that he was sure it was expired; sure enough, it was, by at least a year. Time to clean out the golf bag?

* The first group I followed was silent. The second group almost never stopped talking. I prefer the latter; much more entertaining as a spectator. What do they talk about out there? Anything and everything. The NCAA basketball tournament was a popular topic this weekend, not surprisingly.

Unfortunately, that “real job” thing will keep me from being on-course for the finish on Monday, so no “live” reporting on the end. I will say this: if Ernie Els does win, you might want to put down a wager (if you’re the wagering kind) on him at The Players in May. Why? For those superstitiously inclined: if Ernie does win at Bay Hill, he will have won at my two “live tournaments” so far in 2010; The Players will be the third of those. (Of course, a better reason would be: he’s playing really well.)

Notes from Bay Hill: Saturday

Sometimes the proverbial “journey of a thousand miles” doesn’t always turn out as expected. It looks like that will be my “thought of the week” for this tournament, and I probably am not alone. Saturday was a beautiful day in Orlando, sunny and reasonably warm, but the scores on the golf course were anything but lovely. Only six players in the field managed to shoot in the 60's, three couldn’t break 80, and the number of high-70's rounds is enough to bring a U.S. Open leaderboard to mind. This was my first round at Bay Hill, so I can’t say whether there is just something about the course (though #17 seems to be especially diabolical in design, and several other holes are “interesting”), whether it was the wind (up, but not as high as Doral a few weeks ago), or something else that made today especially unpleasant for players.

I got to the course in the late morning and watched 15-20 players at varying points on the front nine, before deciding to walk with the pairing of Joe Ogilvie and Paul Goydos. That was definitely not a pairing for those who are sensitive to bad rounds, as the final scores for the day were 79 and 82. There were a few miscues (Goydos trying to go over the wide part of the water on #6 being a notable one; that shot would have been challenging for all but the longest hitters, even more so for one who gives up a lot of yardage off the tee to most of his competitors), but overall it was just “one of those days” for both of the guys, where the putts don’t quite go in, the shot doesn’t quite go where it was supposed to, etc.

My “Seriously???” Award goes to the owner of one of the houses off what I think was the 8th green (possibly the 9th). Like many of the residents in the area, they were having a party while watching the tournament from the comfort of their home. Unlike the other residents, they were having a party with a DJ–and a public-address system. While “our” group was trying to putt, all of a sudden over the loudspeaker a voice blares: “Okay, it’s time for tequila shots!!!” The players were rightly incensed, as were the spectators. This went on for several minutes. Apparently, the owners of the house were given a “cease and desist” order shortly thereafter, thankfully. That kind of thing isn’t fair to the players; general party noise is unavoidable, but broadcasting over a loudspeaker is another matter entirely.

You can insert any of my pace-of-play rants from Doral here, and they would fit nicely. Waiting was the name of the game once again. At least once, we were waiting for the group ahead of us, who were waiting for the group ahead of them. On the par-5 16th, at one point three different groups were playing the hole, and none of them were on the green yet. There was one player known to be slow a few groups ahead, but this seemed to be an issue even further “upstream”.

Sam Saunders had quite a gallery following him. No surprise there.

I did have a “King Sighting”. While waiting (again) to tee off on #11, Mr. Palmer came within 15 feet or so, driving a golf cart with Mrs. Palmer. Lots of people just watched as he went by, and most of them were smiling, as was I.

With the anticipation of bad weather arriving on Sunday afternoon, final-round tee times have been pushed up, and the players will go off split tees in groups of three. The last groups tee off at 10:19 a.m., so they should be finished before the worst of the storms arrive in mid-to-late afternoon.

Predictions: Bay Hill

First, congratulations to Jim Furyk for his win on Sunday at the Transitions Championship. That big “whoosh” that you may be hearing is PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem breathing a sigh of relief that Furyk joins Els, Poulter, and Villegas as recent winners who might be recognizable to the more casual golf fan.

Another congratulations goes out to Team Lake Nona, for successfully defending their Tavistock Cup title on Tuesday, winning for the first time at Isleworth. Isleworth’s Nick O’Hern took the Payne Stewart Salver Award for lowest individual score, with a course-record-tying 65.

Now on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. The course was the most challenging non-major course in 2009, and while it has returned to a par-72 from last year’s par-70, it’s sure to have its challenges still awaiting a very strong field. I’ve got two “spotlight players” this week:

* Nick Watney. Watney finished 4th here last year, and also 4th at Tampa last week. His 2010 season started a bit slower than I’d expected, but he seems to be coming around now.

* Graeme McDowell. Regular readers know that I’m a bit partisan toward McDowell, but this is actually the first time I’ve picked him in 2010. His season also took a bit of time to warm up, but his game currently looks very solid. He played reasonably well here through the first two rounds last year, before fading on the weekend; however, his game seems to be holding up better through four rounds this year than it was at this point last year.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf picks don’t feature a lot of the popular picks (Stricker, Mickelson, Dustin Johnson); I’ve used many of them several times already this year, and saving them for tournaments where I feel they’ll be better used.

“Front 4": Zach Johnson, Nick Watney, Robert Allenby, Graeme McDowell
“Bench team”: Stephen Ames, Pat Perez, Retief Goosen, John Senden

Last week was a pretty good week for picks. My spotlight players, Steve Stricker and Charlie Wi, finished 8th and 20th, respectively, and K.J. Choi proved an especially good B-pick, with his runner-up finish. My Yahoo team now has 1675 points, in the 76th percentile.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Transitions Championship

A belated congratulations to Derek Lamely, the winner on Monday in the rain-delayed Puerto Rico Open.

And now it’s on to Palm Harbor, site of the Transitions Championship. Alas, there will be no on-site reporting from this writer this week, as something called a “real job” tends to interfere with my Tour-chasing schedule. But I do have some picks for this week’s tournament.

Top pick, “chalk” edition: Steve Stricker. He’s the best player in the field, and he finished tied for 4th here last year.

Top pick, “sleeper” edition: Charlie Wi. The last time I picked Charlie, he rewarded me with a top-10 finish at the Honda Classic two weeks ago. I’m hoping he’ll do the same this week. He also finished tied for 4th here last year.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4 : Charlie Wi, K.J. Choi, Charles Howell III, Matthew Goggin
“Bench team”: Steve Stricker, Kevin Na, Bo Van Pelt, Brendon de Jonge

Last week was a week of weak performances for most of my fantasy golf picks. Alvaro Quiros was my sole top-10 player, and while my “spotlight pick” of Camilo Villegas finished in a respectable 16th, the rest of my team was middling at best. I’m currently at 1515 points, in the 72nd percentile. Hopefully, this week will turn the momentum back in a positive direction.

Best of luck to all!

Doral Diary: Sunday

The final day at Doral was sunny and beautiful. The wind was down from earlier in the week, though it was definitely still a factor. I not only “walked 26", I walked 27 today. I started out with Scott Verplank and Ross McGowan. After nine holes with them, I walked through the next two groups (Zach Johnson/Sergio Garcia and Brian Gay/Jason Dufner) and eventually walked the final four holes with Dustin Johnson and Kevin Na. After a break for lunch, I picked up my “usual suspect” Graeme McDowell and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano on their second nine and walked to the end. My observations:

* This is by far not the first time that I’ve mentioned it this week, but something MUST be done about slow play. I decided to forego a second nine with Verplank/McGowan largely out of frustration at their pace. There were times when I thought one of them was waiting for his lie to improve, or waiting for the right club to announce itself. Just hit the ball, guys; if it’s a bad lie, take your medicine and move on. As I walked ahead through the subsequent groups, I walked the entire par-5 12th hole without encountering a single player on the tee or on the green, and I wasn’t speed-walking. Kevin Na was pretty “deliberate” as well. Where’s John Paramore when we need him?

* Jason Dufner wins an award that no one wants to win from me: the Dude, There Are Children Present Award. Following a terrible shot on 13, he walked up the fairway letting loose a verbal tirade that featured two “F-bombs” and a few other high-level profanities, all of which were distinctly audible from at least 50 feet away. I understand frustration, but really wish that professionals would remember that there are often children within earshot and try to use a bit more discretion in their choice of words, or at least their volume level.

* It’s always nice to follow a player who’s having a great day, and being there for the second half of McDowell’s 66 was great. There was much cheering and general high energy. Unfortunately, Fernandez-Castano struggled at the same time and was clearly discouraged; it’s probably even tougher to have a bad day while your playing partner is having a good one.

* I was glad to see Ernie Els win the tournament. Ernie had been practicing late into the evenings after his rounds this week, and was at the course earlier in the mornings than most of his late-round counterparts. For those who counted him out, he’s still got a lot of game left.

It’s a sad thing to be leaving sunny south Florida and the golf course behind in the morning, but I’ll be reporting live again from Bay Hill for the final two rounds in two weeks. And, of course, my picks for the Transitions Championship will be up in a few days!

Doral Diary: Saturday

It was a beautiful day in Miami, much different from Friday. There was barely a cloud in the sky, the temperatures were warm (at least by Kentucky-March standards, if not Miami-March standards), and while the winds were high, they kept the heat and humidity from becoming oppressive. I went out with Geoff Ogilvy and Graeme McDowell today. My observations on the day:

* The crowds were about what I expected. Our group had only a few spectators, but I wasn’t expecting a large crowd; even with Ogilvy’s major championship and WGC history, he doesn’t seem to be a big crowd draw. The Villegas/Mickelson pairing was on an opposite hole to our group a few times, and the gallery following that group was quite large.

* Pace of play again became an issue on a few holes. We had to wait a few times, especially at the short par-4 16th. When we got there after the par-3 15th, the group in front of us hadn’t teed off, and we had to wait for them to play the complete hole before teeing off. I’m not sure if it was the slowness of that particular group (Adam Scott/Brian Gay) or the accumulated slowness of the groups in front of us (we were the 19th group off in the morning), but these delays seem to be getting worse almost every week.

* Geoff Ogilvy really is off his form right now. I was surprised to see him out-driven several times by McDowell, who isn’t a long hitter. He also hit three shots into the water during the round. His play wasn’t what I was expecting from a major champion and winner of multiple WGC titles.

* Annual tournaments often have their “usual suspects”, and I had one of those encounters this afternoon. The standard bearer for the group that I followed during the third round last year was back at work today. I’d befriended his mother the year before, and it was nice to catch up again today. The young man is quite a McDowell fan, so he was happy to get to walk with his favorite player for two years in a row.

* I usually stay behind or on-level with the players I’m following, but today I got a shot ahead of them at times, while talking with fellow spectators. On the 13th hole, I remembered why I usually don’t walk ahead. I was standing on the green with some new friends while the players teed off. Shortly after the first player teed off, another spectator (who was much taller than the rest of us and had better visibility) said, “Incoming!” We all ducked, and the ball landed about 4 feet in front of us; it came in at such an angle that, if we hadn’t ducked, it would have hit any or all of us. A minute later, the second player teed off, and the taller spectator said, “Here comes another one!” It was again duck-and-cover time, as the second tee shot was just as wayward and landed only a few feet in front of the first one. It was the first time I’d ever been “hit into”, so having it happen twice was an experience! Even stranger, one of the other spectators had actually been hit by a player during the first round; I think I know who to avoid standing next to now!

Tomorrow’s forecast is calling for another beautiful day. Let’s hope that the golf is beautiful as well!

Doral Diary: Friday

So much for “sunny Miami”! Even with tee times pushed up approximately three hours, weather was still an issue, especially for the later groups. I went off with the same group I followed yesterday (Graeme McDowell, Anthony Kim, Angel Cabrera), which was the last group off the 1st tee. My observations on the day:

* The energy level was higher today than it was yesterday afternoon. The galleries were larger, more like I’d been expecting the day before, and there were more exuberant reactions than during the first round. There seemed to be a lighter atmosphere, by and large, among the players as well.
Cabrera again had the largest following of the three players in the group I followed.

* The perfect photo that no one got (since spectators can’t have cameras during tournament rounds, and there were no media photographers around at the time): Angel Cabrera (a.k.a. “El Pato”, “The Duck”) walking up the 10th fairway, with an actual duck walking along beside him.

* The weather was the real story of the day, and being with the last group, I got to experience the worst of it. Shortly after making the turn, the rain began in earnest. The temperature quickly dropped 10-15 degrees (Fahrenheit), and a bit of wind made it almost chilly at times. Play was halted on the 13th green for several minutes, likely due to lightning. Play was halted again on the 17th tee, when the rain reached a level that severely reduced visibility. After several minutes of the second delay, the few remaining spectators at 17 were told that play was done for the day. Apparently, there was a restart at some later point, as those few players who were still on the course at the second delay did finish their second round by the end of the day. I’m sure they’re all glad not to have a super-early Saturday wake-up call!

* There are still good people out there. It was nice to see people with umbrellas volunteering to share space with those who didn’t have them. I benefitted tremendously from one such kind individual through most of the back nine.

* I will always pack my waterproofs when I travel to a tournament from now on, even if it’s in Abu Dhabi. Yes, this is one week that they didn’t go in the suitcase.

* Anthony Kim lightened up the mood a bit after the first delay, whether intentionally or not. When everyone was back at the 13th green to resume play, there was still a delay while waiting for other groups to get in place. We were all getting a bit impatient, waiting for the “go ahead” horn to sound. At one point, Kim started imitating the horn. A few minutes later, he asked the tour official, “Do I get a penalty if I go ahead and play now?” In case you’re wondering, the answer is “yes”.

* Speaking of impatience, let’s mention the pace-of-play issue. I’m not sure where this started, especially being part of the last group, but the waiting game was definitely in effect. We arrived at the first par-3 on the course to find that the group in front of us hadn’t even teed off yet. There was more waiting throughout the day. It’s likely that our group’s pace was fairly quick, with three players who are pretty aggressive and quicker players, but this is by far not the first tournament where backlogs have occurred.

This weekend’s forecast is for sunshine, and hopefully lots of good golf as well!

Doral Diary: Thursday

Doral Diary: Thursday

Due to some “real life” circumstances, I only managed nine holes of the first round at the WGC-CA Championship. I saw five or six groups tee off before following one of my “usual suspects”, Graeme McDowell, and playing partners Anthony Kim and Angel Cabrera for their second nine (holes 1-9, after the group started on #10). Some observations:

* The crowds were pretty sparse. Thursday usually is the low day for attendance, but this seemed to be lower than it was the previous year. Even the galleries following Phil Mickelson/Rory McIlroy/Retief Goosen and Camilo Villegas/Lee Westwood/Martin Kaymer were pretty small. I’m not sure if it was the “no-Tiger factor”, the threat of rain and thunderstorms in the weather forecast, or some other reason or combination of reasons.

* Speaking of weather, it was very windy out there. Out of the eight tournaments I’ve been to in the last couple of years, this was by far the windiest. Fortunately, the wind kept the temperatures from getting too hot. I felt a few raindrops from time to time, but serious rain and storms didn’t materialize. However, with a Friday forecast that looks more than a little ominous, tee times have been pushed up over three hours for the second round.

* There were only a handful of people walking with the group I followed this afternoon, and most of those were family members or media. Of the three players, Cabrera had the most spectator interest. I was surprised that Kim didn’t have a large following, as he’s a big TV draw.

* It wasn’t a beautiful nine holes of golf, and for long periods of time it was very, very quiet. When one or more players in a group are on an “off” streak, and when no one is making any spectacular moves, it can become almost eerily silent. The relative lack of spectators amplified that silence.

Hopefully, the energy level on the course, both from players and fans, will be higher tomorrow, and the weather will cooperate until the last putt drops!

Predictions: WGC-CA Championship

Greetings from lovely Doral, Florida, where the weather is like something out of a south Florida tourist brochure on this Wednesday afternoon. But before I can lounge by the hotel pool (yes, it is a tough life...), here are my picks for this week’s WGC-CA Championship.

Winner: Camilo Villegas. Yes, I’m going with “chalk”, but with a 3rd, an 8th, and a win in his last three starts, and a 5th-place finish at Doral, he seems like a pretty good one. Of course, that and the confidence that seemingly most of the golf world is putting in Camilo this week may prove to put the hex on him...

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team:
“Front 4": Kenny Perry, Camilo Villegas, Alvaro Quiros, Soren Kjeldsen
“Bench team”: Anthony Kim, Nick Watney, Oliver Wilson, Angel Cabrera

I’ll be watching two of my bench players in action in the first two rounds, as I have plans to follow Kim, Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell for a portion of the first round and likely all of the second. (By the way, if you’re thinking of starting McDowell this week, don’t. I watched him play three rounds here last year, and it doesn’t seem to be the best course for his game. Of course, if the “announcer’s curse” works in reverse, I’ve probably just guaranteed GMac a top-10 finish.)

Last week’s Yahoo results left something to be desired. Despite top-10 finishes from both Charlie Wi and Fredrik Jacobson, I went into the weekend with only 3 of 8 players making the cut. I’m currently in the 73rd percentile, with 1365 points.

Best of luck to all! Now, about that mai tai....

Best Golfers Under 30: Says Who?

Thanks to Janky for inspiring this entry!

It seems like there are as many “best pro golfers under 30" lists as there are commentators (or perhaps even more). An underlying question is: How do we determine the best? It seems that everyone has their own criteria, and their own weighting.

To start off the debate, here are the top 5 pro golfers under 30, courtesy of the Official World Golf Ranking (as of February 28):

1. Martin Kaymer
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Sean O’Hair
4. Camilo Villegas
5. Hunter Mahan

The rankings are based on points given for finishes and field strength, on a two-year cycle, that makes the FedEx Cup system seem crystal-clear; I was a math geek in school and currently deal with data and statistics in “real life”, and I still don’t really understand it, so I won’t venture a more detailed explanation.

But is this system the way to determine “the” list of the best golfers under 30? What about a ranking system for the rest of us? I spent some time looking at those under-30's who are in the top 100 of the world rankings, considering them on the basis of three factors: wins, consistency of performance, and major performances.

Is number of wins the way to rank the best golfers under 30? I think most golf fans would agree, “a win is not always a win”. If number of wins were all that mattered, Japanese teen phenom Ryo Ishikawa would be the best. Ishikawa has seven wins–all in Japan, in events that are by and large much weaker than PGA and European Tour events. How do Martin Kaymer’s five European Tour wins, all in relatively strong events, compare with Charl Schwartzel’s five wins, the two most recent in weaker-field events? Stateside, how would Camilo Villegas’s three PGA Tour wins, all in stronger events, compare with Dustin Johnson’s three wins, one of which came in a Fall Series event? Would a player with two stronger-field events, such as Anthony Kim, be ranked close to or even above a three-win player such as Johnson, if one of those three wins came in a weak-field event?

What about those tournaments that don’t result in a win? How much do top-10 finishes count? Can a winless player with multiple top-10's in any given year, such as Kevin Na or Oliver Wilson, be counted in the “best players” category?

And what about performances in majors? How much does that factor into the ranking, especially since no player currently under age 30 has won a major? Two players currently under 30 had top-10 finishes in two majors in 2009 (Rory McIlroy and Hunter Mahan). Ross Fisher led all four majors in 2009 at one point, but only managed one top-10 finish; how does that compare against McIlroy and Mahan?

For what it’s worth, here is my top 5. I put a lot of weight into wins (qualified by strength of field), followed by performance in majors, top-10 finishes outside of wins, career consistency, and a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor:

1. Martin Kaymer. 5 wins in relatively strong-field European Tour events, a 6th-place finish in the 2009 PGA Championship, and a win earlier this year in Abu Dhabi.
2. Sean O’Hair. O’Hair gets the nod over other three-win players due in part to seven top-10 finishes in addition to his win at Quail Hollow in 2009. One of those was a 10th at the Masters, and three others were in FedEx Cup playoff events.
3. Camilo Villegas. Villegas definitely has the highest “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor, with a 3rd in the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and 8th in the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and a win at the Honda Classic in the last three weeks. All of his three wins have come in events with relatively strong fields.
4. Dustin Johnson. Johnson is the third player with three PGA Tour wins. He also finished 10th in the 2009 PGA Championship and so far has one win (Pebble Beach) in 2010. He finishes behind Villegas due to his first win being at a weaker-field Fall Series event.
5. Hunter Mahan. This was the toughest one to pick. Mahan gets the nod for several reasons: his win at Phoenix last month earns “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” points; his six top-10 finishes last year included two majors (10th in the Masters, 6th in the U.S. Open) and one WGC event (4th at Bridgestone); and he’s come through in the clutch at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup recently. Two career wins also put him ahead of McIlroy, who has tremendous upside but one win.

Let the debate begin!

Predictions: Honda Classic

Congratulations to Hunter Mahan, last week’s winner at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. For all the talk about Mahan as one of the “hot players under 30", it’s surprising that this is his first win in almost three years; it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to record his next win.

The Tour now heads east for the first stop in the “Florida swing”, the Honda Classic. Last year’s winner, Y.E. Yang, certainly would have been an “out-of-the-box” pick at the time, as he was just a few months removed from Q-school. He was even more of an “out-of-the-box” pick a few months later, when he won the PGA Championship. I followed Yang for a round at Doral the week after his victory at Honda last year, and saw no signs of the major to come. So for this year’s edition of the Honda, I’ve got quite a few “out-of-the-box” names, as well as some more familiar.

My “front 4" for this week’s Yahoo Fantasy Golf game:
Charlie Wi, Robert Allenby, Fredrik Jacobson, John Rollins

My “bench team” for at least the first day:
D.A. Points, Jeff Klauk, Scott Piercy, Tim Clark

With the exception of Clark, all the rest of the selected players finished in the top 10 at Honda last year. We’ll see if this week will be one in which past performance actually correlates to future results!

Last week’s predictions were pretty lackluster. My two “spotlight players”, J.B. Holmes and J.P. Hayes, finished in 43rd and 36th places, respectively. An indifferent performance from my entire Yahoo Fantasy Golf team led to a total of 1255 points, in the 79th percentile. Hopefully, some Florida sunshine will shine on this week’s line-up!

Speaking of Florida sunshine, a sneak preview of next week: I’ll be blogging from Doral, Florida, and will have “live” updates after each round. I’ll kick off the week with a few “off-course” anecdotes from last year’s Doral trip, so stay tuned!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Phoenix

Congratulations to last week’s winners. Ian Poulter recorded his first PGA Tour win at the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and Cameron Beckman earned his third PGA win at the Mayakoba Golf Classic.

Now grab your favorite beverage and start writing your cheers (or jeers), because it’s time to hit #16–TPC Scottsdale #16 that is, the loudest hole in golf. The tournament this year has a new sponsor, Waste Management (who may have their hands full disposing of all those empty beverage containers), and a new name, the Waste Management Phoenix Open (known as the FBR Open last year), but the rowdy atmosphere is the same as ever.

I have two players to watch this week:

* J.B. Holmes. He’s won twice here. Enough said.

* J.P. Hayes. He has two top-10's in his last two starts. It will be interesting to see if he carries that momentum forward this week.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team this week is:
“Front 4": Ryan Moore, J.B. Holmes, Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar
“Bench team”: Kenny Perry, Brian Gay, David Toms, J.P. Hayes

Last week’s predictions didn’t go so well. My Match Play pick, Ross Fisher, got bounced in the first round, and my Mayakoba picks weren’t much better (Jerry Kelly finished 28th, and Nick Dougherty should’ve just skipped the week, as he missed the cut). With only one B-team player for the weekend, my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team slipped back to the 81st percentile, with a total of 1131 points.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Mayakoba

Dustin Johnson successfully defended his title at Pebble Beach on Sunday, despite a final-round 74. How Johnson became one of only two Americans in their 20's with three PGA Tour wins (Sean O’Hair being the other) and the first player since Tiger Woods to win in each of his first three seasons, while still flying under the radar of many fans is a mystery to me; however, I suspect his anonymity is over now.

The most visceral takeaway from Pebble Beach for me, however, is this: I really don’t like seeing 9's. At least three players (Alex Prugh, Bryce Molder, and Paul Goydos) scored a 9 on the par-5 14th hole on Sunday. After shot 7 or so, it really becomes painful to watch.

This week, the Tour is giving us a double-dose of golf, with the Match Play and the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico. In earlier posts, I gave my predictions for the Match Play. Making picks for Mayakoba was much more challenging; to call the field weak would probably be an understatement, and even I had never heard of many of the players teeing it up. I’m highlighting two players this week:

* Jerry Kelly. This is more to see where his game is at, and how much trouble his back injury from earlier this season is going to be. He finished T-6 here last year. Depending on the back, I think he’ll either play very well or be out early with either a missed cut or WD.

* Nick Dougherty. Dougherty seems like a strange entry in this field. He’s a European Tour player without PGA Tour membership, and this tournament isn’t really a warm-up for a bigger tournament (the next WGC event is still three weeks away, and the Masters is almost two months away). I’ll attribute his entry this week to one of two things: he’s either bored, or he sees this week as a likely opportunity to capitalize on the weak field, get a win and a PGA Tour card.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Heath Slocum, Mark Wilson, James Nitties, Jerry Kelly
“Bench team”: Nick Dougherty, Blake Adams, Josh Teater, Chris Wilson

February continues to be an improved month for prognostications, as Dustin Johnson gave me my first picked winner of 2010. Alex Prugh finished in 27th despite the 9, and Mike Weir doubtless disappointed a lot of fans with his 52nd-place finish. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team climbed into the 85th percentile, with 1001 points.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Match Play, Subsequent Rounds

Of course, all picks contingent on accuracy of Round 1 picks.

* Steve Stricker v. Ryo Ishikawa. Stricker wins another quick one.
* Robert Karlsson v. Ross Fisher. If anything, I’ll be overestimating, rather than underestimating, Fisher this year. He wins this one, too.
* Padraig Harrington v. Matt Kuchar. I don’t like Padraig’s game right now, plain and simple. Kuchar wins.
* Ian Poulter v. Angel Cabrera. Cabrera only won the first one because he was playing Adam Scott. Poulter gets an easy win here.

* Lee Westwood v. Nick Watney. Another one that’s over quickly. Westwood wins again.
* Ernie Els v. Retief Goosen. In the battle of the South Africans, the Big Easy moves on.
* Henrik Stenson v. Y.E. Yang. Stenson handles the PGA Champ pretty easily.
* Geoff Ogilvy v. Dustin Johnson. This would be a fun match to watch. Ogilvy’s tough to beat, though; he moves on.

* Martin Kaymer v. Tim Clark. Clark continues marching over “better” seeds and marching on to the next round.
* David Toms v. Lucas Glover. Toms’s experience gives him the nod over the U.S. Open Champ in this one.
* Rory McIlroy v. Oliver Wilson. Another one that would be fun to watch. McIlroy’s a better player most days, but his back issues are a slight concern. Wilson’s also better than he’s often given credit for, and he gets the upset here.
* Robert Allenby v. Graeme McDowell. Neither one are shining stars with the flat stick lately. But in match-play situations, McDowell’s putting shows more of a resurrection than Allenby’s. GMac’s moving on.

* Scott Verplank v. Hunter Mahan. Can Verplank score two upsets in a row? Yes, he can.
* Sean O’Hair v. Stewart Cink. The rest of the 2009 major champions are out, but Cink makes it through the second round.
* Paul Casey v. Mike Weir. Casey will overpower Weir for a relatively easy win.
* Kenny Perry v. Zach Johnson. Could be a very close match. I’m giving the nod to Zach.

Round 3:

* Steve Stricker v. Ross Fisher. If you’ve noticed a pattern, you probably won’t be surprised that I’m picking Fisher in this one.
* Matt Kuchar v. Ian Poulter. Honestly, a mismatch. Poulter wins an easy one.
* Lee Westwood v. Ernie Els. Westwood is new to the third round. He’ll be new to the fourth round as well, as he advances.
* Henrik Stenson v. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy is going to be tough to stop, and Stenson’s not the one to do it.
* Tim Clark v. David Toms. Clark is also going to be tough to knock out. Toms isn’t the one to do it.
* Oliver Wilson v. Graeme McDowell. Another clash of former Ryder Cup teammates. Wilson is the better all-around player, and he gets the win here.
* Scott Verplank v. Stewart Cink. Can Verplank get three upsets in a row? Yes, he can.
* Paul Casey v. Zach Johnson. Casey does the same to Zach as he did to Mike Weir, and moves on.

Round 4:

* Ross Fisher v. Ian Poulter. Clash of the World Cup teammates. If you guessed that I’m picking Fisher, you’re right.
* Lee Westwood v. Geoff Ogilvy. Another tough match. Ogilvy emerges victorious at the end.
* Tim Clark v. Oliver Wilson. Clark has already handled the #1 seed in his bracket. Getting the win here should be easier.
* Scott Verplank v. Paul Casey. Can Verplank pull yet another upset? No, the run ends here; Casey gets the win.

Final 4:
* Ross Fisher v. Tim Clark. Clark’s upset run ends here. Fisher gets the win.
* Geoff Ogilvy v. Paul Casey. One of the best matches of the tournament. Ogilvy wins, though this one’s likely to go extra holes.

Consolation match:
Paul Casey v. Tim Clark. Casey has the game to overpower Clark, and that’s just what he does.

Final:
Ross Fisher v. Geoff Ogilvy. If it comes down to these two at the end, it almost certainly will go into overtime. I’m going to call for the upset and say that Fisher wins it all.

Predictions: Match Play Round 1

Like a true “golf geek”, I have picked winners of all 32 first-round matches at the WGC-Accenture Match Play:

* Steve Stricker v. Ross McGowan. McGowan was the last man in the field. He’ll be one of the first out. Stricker wins easily.
* Ryo Ishikawa v. Michael Sim. Ishikawa has President’s Cup experience, so I’ll give him the slight nod over Sim.
* Robert Karlsson v. Rory Sabbatini. Another one that’s likely to end pretty quickly. Karlsson wins.
* Ross Fisher v. Thongchai Jaidee. I consistently underestimated Fisher all last year. Not this year. Fisher wins easily.
* Padraig Harrington v. Jeev Milkha Singh. I’m not loving what I see from either player right now. Giving the edge to Padraig, though.
* Anthony Kim v. Matt Kuchar. First upset of the bracket. AK was great at the Ryder Cup, but hasn’t done anything since, while Kuchar’s game has finally awakened. Kuchar wins.
* Ian Poulter v. Justin Leonard. Speaking of Ryder Cup, expect to see Poulter back in form. Expect to see him advance.
* Angel Cabrera v. Adam Scott. Another match I’m not in love with. I don’t think Adam Scott is “back” yet. Cabrera wins.

* Lee Westwood v. Chris Wood. Chris Wood is a very good match player. Unfortunately, he’s running into one of the best-ever Ryder Cup players. Westwood gets the win.
* Nick Watney v. Yuta Ikeda. I’m picking Watney in this one, if for no other reason than I’ve never heard of Yuta Ikeda.
* Ernie Els v. Ryan Moore. Quite a few people are picking this as an “upset” match. I’m not. Els wins.
* Retief Goosen v. Soren Hansen. There are three Hansen/Hanson players in this year’s Match Play. As a spoiler for later brackets, I don’t have any of them getting past the first round. Goosen wins.
* Henrik Stenson v. Ben Crane. Even with Crane in it, this match will be over relatively quickly. Stenson wins.
* Y.E. Yang v. Soren Kjeldsen. No other comment, than Yang wins this one.
* Geoff Ogilvy v. Alexander Noren. Is anyone picking Noren in this one? I didn’t think so. I’m not, either; easy win for Ogilvy.
* Camilo Villegas v. Dustin Johnson. Obviously, the seeding was done prior to Johnson’s win on Sunday at Pebble Beach. An upset for that reason only. Johnson wins.

* Martin Kaymer v. Chad Campbell. Kaymer’s one of the best young players in the world. He gets the win here.
* Vijay Singh v. Tim Clark. Clark took down Tiger in this tournament previously. Vijay will pose little challenge. Clark moves on.
* Sergio Garcia v. David Toms. I’ve seen little signs of life from Sergio’s game so far this year. I don’t think that changes this week. Toms wins.
* Lucas Glover v. Anders Hansen. See my previous comments on Hansen/Hanson. Glover wins.
* Rory McIlroy v. Kevin Na. Easy win for McIlroy, no more need be said.
* Miguel Angel Jimenez v. Oliver Wilson. Ryder Cup teammates turned opposition. Jimenez just won in the Middle East, but I like Wilson’s match-play performance better. Wilson wins.
* Robert Allenby v. Peter Hanson. The third of the Hansen/Hanson trio, the third to go out in the first round. Allenby wins.
* Luke Donald v. Graeme McDowell. I’m calling for the upset here. Donald is a better overall player, but McDowell has been turning up very big in match play recently. McDowell wins.

* Jim Furyk v. Scott Verplank. Another match that’s getting a lot of “upset” predictions. Add me to those. Verplank wins.
* Hunter Mahan v. Charl Schwartzel. Schwartzel has a couple of wins in South Africa, but I’m not sure about his match-play work. Mahan wins.
* Sean O’Hair v. Simon Dyson. Should be an easy win for O’Hair.
* Stewart Cink v. Edoardo Molinari. Perhaps there’s a little bias against the Molinari brothers after they defeated my Ireland pick in the World Cup. Perhaps I just don’t think they have the experience to match up. Cink wins this one.
* Paul Casey v. Stephen Ames. Casey won’t give Ames the 9&8 treatment that Tiger did, but Stephen’s still going home. Casey wins it.
* Alvaro Quiros v. Mike Weir. Other than the tee box and the green, they likely won’t see much of each other. I’m going with Weir’s experience over Quiros’s length in this one, though.
* Kenny Perry v. Brian Gay. Another match where they won’t see much of each other between the tee box and the green. Perry wins this one pretty easily.
* Zach Johnson v. Francesco Molinari. Francesco can commiserate with his brother on Wednesday night. Zach Johnson wins this one.

Predictions: Pebble Beach

Finally, some normalcy was restored to the PGA Tour on Sunday, when Steve Stricker won the Northern Trust Open. Stricker was a popular pick last week, and he not only came through for his fans, he also passed Phil Mickelson to become the #2 player in the world. As has been said by many before me (and likely many after), it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

The big surprise to come out of the NTO was Phil Mickelson’s 45th-place finish. Phil isn’t the fastest starter as each year begins, but he usually plays much better in California, and was the defending champion. Well, once again, “past performance is no indication of future results”.

The Tour now moves to picturesque Pebble Beach, for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. There are two guarantees this week: (1) Bill Murray will do something bizarre/stupid (depending on your style of humor); and (2) it will rain.

For predictions that are less than guaranteed, here are my players to watch this week:

Dustin Johnson. Defending champion this week, and he finished 3rd at the NTO last week. When it rains, his extra length off the tee will be even more of an asset.

Alex Prugh. I picked him last week, and I’m picking him again this week. He has three top-10's in his last three starts. I’m going to keep picking him until he gives me a reason not to.

Mike Weir. Disappointing performance at the NTO last week, but he has seven top-10's in his last ten starts at Pebble Beach, and he was the runner-up last year. Here’s hoping that in his case, past performance IS an indication of future results.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Alex Prugh, Mike Weir
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen, Charley Hoffman, Tim Clark

Last week’s predictions were a mixed bag. In addition to the aforementioned 45th-place finish by Mickelson, Scott McCarron missed the cut; then again, McCarron was picked more out of a desire to see a Phil-Scott duel than any faith in his play, past NTO results notwithstanding. But Alex Prugh did come through with that top-10. Prugh, along with first-day bench players Luke Donald and Dustin Johnson (promptly placed in the starting rotation after the first day), led my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to a welcome finish of 809 points, and into the 80th percentile. The year is starting to turn around!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Northern Trust Open

If anyone has correctly picked the last three winners on the PGA Tour, I’d like to talk to you in March about some basketball. Ryan Palmer, Bill Haas, and Ben Crane were certainly not on my radar, and I suspect most golf fans out there can say the same. So while the Tour moves to L.A. for the Northern Trust Open, and defending champion Phil Mickelson is the heavy favorite to repeat, the winner on Sunday may just as easily be somewhat far off the radar.

As I’m writing my predictions for this week, Great White’s “Once Bitten, Twice Shy” is playing on the radio, and it seems very appropriate given the success of my prognostications, or the glaring lack thereof, so far this year. But as I’m nothing if not stubborn, here are three players on my watch list for this week:

Phil Mickelson. Is there anyone out there who is picking against Phil this week? Cue the crickets...

Alex Prugh. His name rhymes with “Alex Who?”, and that’s what I was saying when he finished 5th at the Bob Hope Classic two weeks ago–and when he finished 5th again at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. It will be interesting to see how far the momentum will carry him.

Scott McCarron. Seriously. Phil Mickelson’s new BFF finished 10th at the Northern Trust last year. I’d just like to see the two of them playing together, preferably on Sunday; a little 18-hole throwdown might be good for ratings, too.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Phil Mickelson, K.J. Choi, Alex Prugh, Rickie Fowler
“Bench team”: Luke Donald, Fred Couples, Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker

Last week’s picks reached a new low, as two of the three (Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson) had early exits, and the third (Matt Jones) finished 54th. But top-10 finishes from Nick Watney and Lucas Glover helped my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to hold nearly steady, 630 points and 71st percentile. Here’s hoping for some better fortune this week!

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Farmers Insurance Open

The Tour this week is in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open. For those who may have never heard of the tournament, it was sponsored by Buick last year. Whatever the name, Torrey Pines is the venue, and Phil Mickelson is heavily favored to win. But for those who don’t want to pick Phil this week, those who aren’t sure how much early-season rust is on his game, or those who just like to be contrary to the masses, here are a few other names to consider:

Bubba Watson. Bubba finished 7th at Torrey Pines last year, and was tied for second last week at the Bob Hope Classic.

Dustin Johnson. Dustin didn’t have a spectacular finish at Torrey Pines last year, but 19th is respectable, and he’s got the length to neutralize the 7500+ yard South Course.

Matt Jones. An out-of-the-box pick that many probably haven’t even heard of. Jones finished 5th at Torrey Pines last year, and finished 8th last week at the Bob Hope Classic.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Kevin Sutherland, Matt Jones
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Nick Watney, Lucas Glover, John Rollins

My pick for last week, Mike Weir, was a popular one, but he came through to some extent, finishing in 6th place. He and Ryan Moore helped boost my Yahoo Fantasy Golf points to 508, in the 72nd percentile, despite only having one B-level player going into the final round. Hopefully, this week will continue the positive momentum.

Best of luck to all!

Predictions: Bob Hope Classic

The Tour moves back to the mainland this week with the first event in the “California swing”, the Bob Hope Classic. This is the last remaining 90-hole event on the Tour.

My pick to win this week is a popular one, Mike Weir. Weir is a past champion at the event (2003) and tied for third in last year’s tournament.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Ryan Moore, Chad Campbell, Charles Howell III, Mike Weir
“Bench team”: Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, Scott Piercy, Paul Goydos

My 2010 predictions aren’t off to a great start this week. Last week’s picks, Kevin Na and K.J. Choi, finished 52nd and 39th, respectively, proving that “past performance is no guarantee of future results” indeed. But there’s still a lot of season left.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team finished the week with 338 points, in the 67th percentile, hampered especially by both of my C-level players (Matt Kuchar and Parker McLachlin) missing the cut, and keeping Steve Stricker benched for Zach Johnson in the final round. Oh well, there’s a lot more of the 2010 season left.

Best of luck to all, and here’s hoping the rain holds off!

Predictions: Sony Open

This week kicks off the full-field PGA Tour season, with the Sony Open in lovely, warm Hawaii (yes, I’m still jealous as I look outside at snow still on the ground and a near-record year so far for sub-freezing temperatures).

Most of the fantasy-golf prognosticators this week are picking some combination of Zach Johnson, David Toms, Rory Sabbatini, and Steve Stricker. It’s hard to argue against any of them. Johnson is the defending champion. Toms was runner-up at this tournament last year. Sabbatini was runner-up in 2008, and is coming off a blazing-hot Sunday at Kapalua last week. Stricker finished in the top 5 in 2007 and 2008, and is almost always a solid bet.

This week, I’ve got two picks that are a bit off the radar. I’m picking Kevin Na to win. Yes, I said at the beginning of the year that Na would win on the PGA Tour in 2010, and it could very well come this week. Na has finished in the top 5 in the Sony each of the last two years, and should come into 2010 full of confidence after a very strong 2009 season.

My second pick is K.J. Choi. Choi is the 2008 Sony champion, and also finished 4th in 2007. His 2009 season was uncharacteristically weak, but I doubt that he’ll have two lackluster seasons in a row.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Steve Stricker, Rory Sabbatini, David Toms, Matt Kuchar
“Bench team”: Zach Johnson, Kevin Na, K.J. Choi, Parker McLachlin

Last week’s predictions didn’t go as well as I’d hoped, but there’s a long season ahead:
Zach Johnson: 18th
Stephen Ames: 20th
Steve Stricker: 10th

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team finished with 209 points, placing me in the 72nd percentile, primarily thanks to the strength of Matt Kuchar’s 3rd-place performance, and bringing eventual winner Geoff Ogilvy off the bench for the final two rounds.

Best of luck to all in Oahu!

Predictions: SBS Championship

It’s time for my first tournament predictions of 2010. This week’s tournament is the winners-only SBS Championship in sunny, warm, beautiful Hawaii (reporting from 13-degree weather and snow flurries, I’m terribly jealous of those in Kapalua).

My pick to win this week is Zach Johnson. Yes, I’m one of the millions on the Zach bandwagon, and why not? He played the best golf in his career in 2009, and had two top-10’s in last year’s “Hawaii swing”, with a 6th at Kapalua and a win at Sony.

My “runners-up” are Stephen Ames and Steve Stricker. Again, very popular picks. Both had top-5 finishes at Kapalua in 2008.

For those readers who play Fantasy Golf on Yahoo, here’s my roster for SBS:
“Front 4”: Zach Johnson, Nick Watney, Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar
“Bench team”: Stephen Ames, Geoff Ogilvy, Pat Perez, Paul Casey [Casey would ordinarily start, but I’m waiting to see if he is in fact completely recovered from last year’s oblique injury.]

Best of luck to all in Kapalua this week! Possibly-humbling prediction results coming after the conclusion of the tournament…

The blog is back! 2010 predictions

When I decided to take a six-week sabbatical from blogging to work on 2010 scheduling and some issues in “real life”, little did I realize that “the Tiger Woods story” would explode a week later and pretty much dominate golf media until…well, it hasn’t really stopped yet.

But it’s a new year, and I’m turning the page on 2009 and its scandals and looking forward to watching the action on the links in 2010. Here are my predictions for 2010.

When will Tiger return? Probably the most-asked question leading up to the 2010 season. I’ll assume that there will be no more major developments in this case, and say that he’ll be back for the Masters, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s back at Doral. Of course, if there are further major developments, all bets are off.

The impact of some young guns. Rickie Fowler will win at least once on the PGA Tour in 2010, likely in a weaker-field event. Rory McIlroy will win at least once outside the U.S., and possibly win a major (see major predictions below). If McIlroy does win a major, he will be Rookie of the Year. If he does not, Fowler will be.

On the other side of the success coin… Anthony Kim, Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, and Camilo Villegas will combine for a total of one win worldwide between the four of them, and it may be a European Tour win.

Kiss the trophy. Kevin Na gets his first PGA Tour win in 2010. Robert Allenby gets his first PGA Tour win in almost ten years in 2010. Jim Furyk gets at least one PGA Tour win in 2010.

Major winners: Phil Mickelson wins the Masters. Nick Watney wins the U.S. Open. Tiger Woods wins the Open Championship, unless he doesn’t play; if he doesn’t, Rory McIlroy wins. Ross Fisher wins the PGA Championship.

Ryder Cup: Europe wins the Ryder Cup in Wales. Each team fields four rookies. The margin will be 3.5 points.

Enjoy the 2010 season!