Predictions: Mayakoba

Dustin Johnson successfully defended his title at Pebble Beach on Sunday, despite a final-round 74. How Johnson became one of only two Americans in their 20's with three PGA Tour wins (Sean O’Hair being the other) and the first player since Tiger Woods to win in each of his first three seasons, while still flying under the radar of many fans is a mystery to me; however, I suspect his anonymity is over now.

The most visceral takeaway from Pebble Beach for me, however, is this: I really don’t like seeing 9's. At least three players (Alex Prugh, Bryce Molder, and Paul Goydos) scored a 9 on the par-5 14th hole on Sunday. After shot 7 or so, it really becomes painful to watch.

This week, the Tour is giving us a double-dose of golf, with the Match Play and the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico. In earlier posts, I gave my predictions for the Match Play. Making picks for Mayakoba was much more challenging; to call the field weak would probably be an understatement, and even I had never heard of many of the players teeing it up. I’m highlighting two players this week:

* Jerry Kelly. This is more to see where his game is at, and how much trouble his back injury from earlier this season is going to be. He finished T-6 here last year. Depending on the back, I think he’ll either play very well or be out early with either a missed cut or WD.

* Nick Dougherty. Dougherty seems like a strange entry in this field. He’s a European Tour player without PGA Tour membership, and this tournament isn’t really a warm-up for a bigger tournament (the next WGC event is still three weeks away, and the Masters is almost two months away). I’ll attribute his entry this week to one of two things: he’s either bored, or he sees this week as a likely opportunity to capitalize on the weak field, get a win and a PGA Tour card.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Heath Slocum, Mark Wilson, James Nitties, Jerry Kelly
“Bench team”: Nick Dougherty, Blake Adams, Josh Teater, Chris Wilson

February continues to be an improved month for prognostications, as Dustin Johnson gave me my first picked winner of 2010. Alex Prugh finished in 27th despite the 9, and Mike Weir doubtless disappointed a lot of fans with his 52nd-place finish. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team climbed into the 85th percentile, with 1001 points.

Best of luck to all!