Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Predictions: Phoenix

Congratulations to last week’s winners. Ian Poulter recorded his first PGA Tour win at the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and Cameron Beckman earned his third PGA win at the Mayakoba Golf Classic.

Now grab your favorite beverage and start writing your cheers (or jeers), because it’s time to hit #16–TPC Scottsdale #16 that is, the loudest hole in golf. The tournament this year has a new sponsor, Waste Management (who may have their hands full disposing of all those empty beverage containers), and a new name, the Waste Management Phoenix Open (known as the FBR Open last year), but the rowdy atmosphere is the same as ever.

I have two players to watch this week:

* J.B. Holmes. He’s won twice here. Enough said.

* J.P. Hayes. He has two top-10's in his last two starts. It will be interesting to see if he carries that momentum forward this week.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team this week is:
“Front 4": Ryan Moore, J.B. Holmes, Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar
“Bench team”: Kenny Perry, Brian Gay, David Toms, J.P. Hayes

Last week’s predictions didn’t go so well. My Match Play pick, Ross Fisher, got bounced in the first round, and my Mayakoba picks weren’t much better (Jerry Kelly finished 28th, and Nick Dougherty should’ve just skipped the week, as he missed the cut). With only one B-team player for the weekend, my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team slipped back to the 81st percentile, with a total of 1131 points.

Best of luck to all!

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Predictions: Mayakoba

Dustin Johnson successfully defended his title at Pebble Beach on Sunday, despite a final-round 74. How Johnson became one of only two Americans in their 20's with three PGA Tour wins (Sean O’Hair being the other) and the first player since Tiger Woods to win in each of his first three seasons, while still flying under the radar of many fans is a mystery to me; however, I suspect his anonymity is over now.

The most visceral takeaway from Pebble Beach for me, however, is this: I really don’t like seeing 9's. At least three players (Alex Prugh, Bryce Molder, and Paul Goydos) scored a 9 on the par-5 14th hole on Sunday. After shot 7 or so, it really becomes painful to watch.

This week, the Tour is giving us a double-dose of golf, with the Match Play and the Mayakoba Golf Classic in Mexico. In earlier posts, I gave my predictions for the Match Play. Making picks for Mayakoba was much more challenging; to call the field weak would probably be an understatement, and even I had never heard of many of the players teeing it up. I’m highlighting two players this week:

* Jerry Kelly. This is more to see where his game is at, and how much trouble his back injury from earlier this season is going to be. He finished T-6 here last year. Depending on the back, I think he’ll either play very well or be out early with either a missed cut or WD.

* Nick Dougherty. Dougherty seems like a strange entry in this field. He’s a European Tour player without PGA Tour membership, and this tournament isn’t really a warm-up for a bigger tournament (the next WGC event is still three weeks away, and the Masters is almost two months away). I’ll attribute his entry this week to one of two things: he’s either bored, or he sees this week as a likely opportunity to capitalize on the weak field, get a win and a PGA Tour card.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Heath Slocum, Mark Wilson, James Nitties, Jerry Kelly
“Bench team”: Nick Dougherty, Blake Adams, Josh Teater, Chris Wilson

February continues to be an improved month for prognostications, as Dustin Johnson gave me my first picked winner of 2010. Alex Prugh finished in 27th despite the 9, and Mike Weir doubtless disappointed a lot of fans with his 52nd-place finish. My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team climbed into the 85th percentile, with 1001 points.

Best of luck to all!

Monday, February 15, 2010

Predictions: Match Play, Subsequent Rounds

Of course, all picks contingent on accuracy of Round 1 picks.

* Steve Stricker v. Ryo Ishikawa. Stricker wins another quick one.
* Robert Karlsson v. Ross Fisher. If anything, I’ll be overestimating, rather than underestimating, Fisher this year. He wins this one, too.
* Padraig Harrington v. Matt Kuchar. I don’t like Padraig’s game right now, plain and simple. Kuchar wins.
* Ian Poulter v. Angel Cabrera. Cabrera only won the first one because he was playing Adam Scott. Poulter gets an easy win here.

* Lee Westwood v. Nick Watney. Another one that’s over quickly. Westwood wins again.
* Ernie Els v. Retief Goosen. In the battle of the South Africans, the Big Easy moves on.
* Henrik Stenson v. Y.E. Yang. Stenson handles the PGA Champ pretty easily.
* Geoff Ogilvy v. Dustin Johnson. This would be a fun match to watch. Ogilvy’s tough to beat, though; he moves on.

* Martin Kaymer v. Tim Clark. Clark continues marching over “better” seeds and marching on to the next round.
* David Toms v. Lucas Glover. Toms’s experience gives him the nod over the U.S. Open Champ in this one.
* Rory McIlroy v. Oliver Wilson. Another one that would be fun to watch. McIlroy’s a better player most days, but his back issues are a slight concern. Wilson’s also better than he’s often given credit for, and he gets the upset here.
* Robert Allenby v. Graeme McDowell. Neither one are shining stars with the flat stick lately. But in match-play situations, McDowell’s putting shows more of a resurrection than Allenby’s. GMac’s moving on.

* Scott Verplank v. Hunter Mahan. Can Verplank score two upsets in a row? Yes, he can.
* Sean O’Hair v. Stewart Cink. The rest of the 2009 major champions are out, but Cink makes it through the second round.
* Paul Casey v. Mike Weir. Casey will overpower Weir for a relatively easy win.
* Kenny Perry v. Zach Johnson. Could be a very close match. I’m giving the nod to Zach.

Round 3:

* Steve Stricker v. Ross Fisher. If you’ve noticed a pattern, you probably won’t be surprised that I’m picking Fisher in this one.
* Matt Kuchar v. Ian Poulter. Honestly, a mismatch. Poulter wins an easy one.
* Lee Westwood v. Ernie Els. Westwood is new to the third round. He’ll be new to the fourth round as well, as he advances.
* Henrik Stenson v. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy is going to be tough to stop, and Stenson’s not the one to do it.
* Tim Clark v. David Toms. Clark is also going to be tough to knock out. Toms isn’t the one to do it.
* Oliver Wilson v. Graeme McDowell. Another clash of former Ryder Cup teammates. Wilson is the better all-around player, and he gets the win here.
* Scott Verplank v. Stewart Cink. Can Verplank get three upsets in a row? Yes, he can.
* Paul Casey v. Zach Johnson. Casey does the same to Zach as he did to Mike Weir, and moves on.

Round 4:

* Ross Fisher v. Ian Poulter. Clash of the World Cup teammates. If you guessed that I’m picking Fisher, you’re right.
* Lee Westwood v. Geoff Ogilvy. Another tough match. Ogilvy emerges victorious at the end.
* Tim Clark v. Oliver Wilson. Clark has already handled the #1 seed in his bracket. Getting the win here should be easier.
* Scott Verplank v. Paul Casey. Can Verplank pull yet another upset? No, the run ends here; Casey gets the win.

Final 4:
* Ross Fisher v. Tim Clark. Clark’s upset run ends here. Fisher gets the win.
* Geoff Ogilvy v. Paul Casey. One of the best matches of the tournament. Ogilvy wins, though this one’s likely to go extra holes.

Consolation match:
Paul Casey v. Tim Clark. Casey has the game to overpower Clark, and that’s just what he does.

Final:
Ross Fisher v. Geoff Ogilvy. If it comes down to these two at the end, it almost certainly will go into overtime. I’m going to call for the upset and say that Fisher wins it all.

Predictions: Match Play Round 1

Like a true “golf geek”, I have picked winners of all 32 first-round matches at the WGC-Accenture Match Play:

* Steve Stricker v. Ross McGowan. McGowan was the last man in the field. He’ll be one of the first out. Stricker wins easily.
* Ryo Ishikawa v. Michael Sim. Ishikawa has President’s Cup experience, so I’ll give him the slight nod over Sim.
* Robert Karlsson v. Rory Sabbatini. Another one that’s likely to end pretty quickly. Karlsson wins.
* Ross Fisher v. Thongchai Jaidee. I consistently underestimated Fisher all last year. Not this year. Fisher wins easily.
* Padraig Harrington v. Jeev Milkha Singh. I’m not loving what I see from either player right now. Giving the edge to Padraig, though.
* Anthony Kim v. Matt Kuchar. First upset of the bracket. AK was great at the Ryder Cup, but hasn’t done anything since, while Kuchar’s game has finally awakened. Kuchar wins.
* Ian Poulter v. Justin Leonard. Speaking of Ryder Cup, expect to see Poulter back in form. Expect to see him advance.
* Angel Cabrera v. Adam Scott. Another match I’m not in love with. I don’t think Adam Scott is “back” yet. Cabrera wins.

* Lee Westwood v. Chris Wood. Chris Wood is a very good match player. Unfortunately, he’s running into one of the best-ever Ryder Cup players. Westwood gets the win.
* Nick Watney v. Yuta Ikeda. I’m picking Watney in this one, if for no other reason than I’ve never heard of Yuta Ikeda.
* Ernie Els v. Ryan Moore. Quite a few people are picking this as an “upset” match. I’m not. Els wins.
* Retief Goosen v. Soren Hansen. There are three Hansen/Hanson players in this year’s Match Play. As a spoiler for later brackets, I don’t have any of them getting past the first round. Goosen wins.
* Henrik Stenson v. Ben Crane. Even with Crane in it, this match will be over relatively quickly. Stenson wins.
* Y.E. Yang v. Soren Kjeldsen. No other comment, than Yang wins this one.
* Geoff Ogilvy v. Alexander Noren. Is anyone picking Noren in this one? I didn’t think so. I’m not, either; easy win for Ogilvy.
* Camilo Villegas v. Dustin Johnson. Obviously, the seeding was done prior to Johnson’s win on Sunday at Pebble Beach. An upset for that reason only. Johnson wins.

* Martin Kaymer v. Chad Campbell. Kaymer’s one of the best young players in the world. He gets the win here.
* Vijay Singh v. Tim Clark. Clark took down Tiger in this tournament previously. Vijay will pose little challenge. Clark moves on.
* Sergio Garcia v. David Toms. I’ve seen little signs of life from Sergio’s game so far this year. I don’t think that changes this week. Toms wins.
* Lucas Glover v. Anders Hansen. See my previous comments on Hansen/Hanson. Glover wins.
* Rory McIlroy v. Kevin Na. Easy win for McIlroy, no more need be said.
* Miguel Angel Jimenez v. Oliver Wilson. Ryder Cup teammates turned opposition. Jimenez just won in the Middle East, but I like Wilson’s match-play performance better. Wilson wins.
* Robert Allenby v. Peter Hanson. The third of the Hansen/Hanson trio, the third to go out in the first round. Allenby wins.
* Luke Donald v. Graeme McDowell. I’m calling for the upset here. Donald is a better overall player, but McDowell has been turning up very big in match play recently. McDowell wins.

* Jim Furyk v. Scott Verplank. Another match that’s getting a lot of “upset” predictions. Add me to those. Verplank wins.
* Hunter Mahan v. Charl Schwartzel. Schwartzel has a couple of wins in South Africa, but I’m not sure about his match-play work. Mahan wins.
* Sean O’Hair v. Simon Dyson. Should be an easy win for O’Hair.
* Stewart Cink v. Edoardo Molinari. Perhaps there’s a little bias against the Molinari brothers after they defeated my Ireland pick in the World Cup. Perhaps I just don’t think they have the experience to match up. Cink wins this one.
* Paul Casey v. Stephen Ames. Casey won’t give Ames the 9&8 treatment that Tiger did, but Stephen’s still going home. Casey wins it.
* Alvaro Quiros v. Mike Weir. Other than the tee box and the green, they likely won’t see much of each other. I’m going with Weir’s experience over Quiros’s length in this one, though.
* Kenny Perry v. Brian Gay. Another match where they won’t see much of each other between the tee box and the green. Perry wins this one pretty easily.
* Zach Johnson v. Francesco Molinari. Francesco can commiserate with his brother on Wednesday night. Zach Johnson wins this one.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Predictions: Pebble Beach

Finally, some normalcy was restored to the PGA Tour on Sunday, when Steve Stricker won the Northern Trust Open. Stricker was a popular pick last week, and he not only came through for his fans, he also passed Phil Mickelson to become the #2 player in the world. As has been said by many before me (and likely many after), it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

The big surprise to come out of the NTO was Phil Mickelson’s 45th-place finish. Phil isn’t the fastest starter as each year begins, but he usually plays much better in California, and was the defending champion. Well, once again, “past performance is no indication of future results”.

The Tour now moves to picturesque Pebble Beach, for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. There are two guarantees this week: (1) Bill Murray will do something bizarre/stupid (depending on your style of humor); and (2) it will rain.

For predictions that are less than guaranteed, here are my players to watch this week:

Dustin Johnson. Defending champion this week, and he finished 3rd at the NTO last week. When it rains, his extra length off the tee will be even more of an asset.

Alex Prugh. I picked him last week, and I’m picking him again this week. He has three top-10's in his last three starts. I’m going to keep picking him until he gives me a reason not to.

Mike Weir. Disappointing performance at the NTO last week, but he has seven top-10's in his last ten starts at Pebble Beach, and he was the runner-up last year. Here’s hoping that in his case, past performance IS an indication of future results.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson, Alex Prugh, Mike Weir
“Bench team”: Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen, Charley Hoffman, Tim Clark

Last week’s predictions were a mixed bag. In addition to the aforementioned 45th-place finish by Mickelson, Scott McCarron missed the cut; then again, McCarron was picked more out of a desire to see a Phil-Scott duel than any faith in his play, past NTO results notwithstanding. But Alex Prugh did come through with that top-10. Prugh, along with first-day bench players Luke Donald and Dustin Johnson (promptly placed in the starting rotation after the first day), led my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to a welcome finish of 809 points, and into the 80th percentile. The year is starting to turn around!

Best of luck to all!

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Predictions: Northern Trust Open

If anyone has correctly picked the last three winners on the PGA Tour, I’d like to talk to you in March about some basketball. Ryan Palmer, Bill Haas, and Ben Crane were certainly not on my radar, and I suspect most golf fans out there can say the same. So while the Tour moves to L.A. for the Northern Trust Open, and defending champion Phil Mickelson is the heavy favorite to repeat, the winner on Sunday may just as easily be somewhat far off the radar.

As I’m writing my predictions for this week, Great White’s “Once Bitten, Twice Shy” is playing on the radio, and it seems very appropriate given the success of my prognostications, or the glaring lack thereof, so far this year. But as I’m nothing if not stubborn, here are three players on my watch list for this week:

Phil Mickelson. Is there anyone out there who is picking against Phil this week? Cue the crickets...

Alex Prugh. His name rhymes with “Alex Who?”, and that’s what I was saying when he finished 5th at the Bob Hope Classic two weeks ago–and when he finished 5th again at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. It will be interesting to see how far the momentum will carry him.

Scott McCarron. Seriously. Phil Mickelson’s new BFF finished 10th at the Northern Trust last year. I’d just like to see the two of them playing together, preferably on Sunday; a little 18-hole throwdown might be good for ratings, too.

My Yahoo Fantasy Golf team for this week is:
“Front 4": Phil Mickelson, K.J. Choi, Alex Prugh, Rickie Fowler
“Bench team”: Luke Donald, Fred Couples, Dustin Johnson, Brandt Snedeker

Last week’s picks reached a new low, as two of the three (Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson) had early exits, and the third (Matt Jones) finished 54th. But top-10 finishes from Nick Watney and Lucas Glover helped my Yahoo Fantasy Golf team to hold nearly steady, 630 points and 71st percentile. Here’s hoping for some better fortune this week!

Best of luck to all!