Best Golfers Under 30: Says Who?

Thanks to Janky for inspiring this entry!

It seems like there are as many “best pro golfers under 30" lists as there are commentators (or perhaps even more). An underlying question is: How do we determine the best? It seems that everyone has their own criteria, and their own weighting.

To start off the debate, here are the top 5 pro golfers under 30, courtesy of the Official World Golf Ranking (as of February 28):

1. Martin Kaymer
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Sean O’Hair
4. Camilo Villegas
5. Hunter Mahan

The rankings are based on points given for finishes and field strength, on a two-year cycle, that makes the FedEx Cup system seem crystal-clear; I was a math geek in school and currently deal with data and statistics in “real life”, and I still don’t really understand it, so I won’t venture a more detailed explanation.

But is this system the way to determine “the” list of the best golfers under 30? What about a ranking system for the rest of us? I spent some time looking at those under-30's who are in the top 100 of the world rankings, considering them on the basis of three factors: wins, consistency of performance, and major performances.

Is number of wins the way to rank the best golfers under 30? I think most golf fans would agree, “a win is not always a win”. If number of wins were all that mattered, Japanese teen phenom Ryo Ishikawa would be the best. Ishikawa has seven wins–all in Japan, in events that are by and large much weaker than PGA and European Tour events. How do Martin Kaymer’s five European Tour wins, all in relatively strong events, compare with Charl Schwartzel’s five wins, the two most recent in weaker-field events? Stateside, how would Camilo Villegas’s three PGA Tour wins, all in stronger events, compare with Dustin Johnson’s three wins, one of which came in a Fall Series event? Would a player with two stronger-field events, such as Anthony Kim, be ranked close to or even above a three-win player such as Johnson, if one of those three wins came in a weak-field event?

What about those tournaments that don’t result in a win? How much do top-10 finishes count? Can a winless player with multiple top-10's in any given year, such as Kevin Na or Oliver Wilson, be counted in the “best players” category?

And what about performances in majors? How much does that factor into the ranking, especially since no player currently under age 30 has won a major? Two players currently under 30 had top-10 finishes in two majors in 2009 (Rory McIlroy and Hunter Mahan). Ross Fisher led all four majors in 2009 at one point, but only managed one top-10 finish; how does that compare against McIlroy and Mahan?

For what it’s worth, here is my top 5. I put a lot of weight into wins (qualified by strength of field), followed by performance in majors, top-10 finishes outside of wins, career consistency, and a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor:

1. Martin Kaymer. 5 wins in relatively strong-field European Tour events, a 6th-place finish in the 2009 PGA Championship, and a win earlier this year in Abu Dhabi.
2. Sean O’Hair. O’Hair gets the nod over other three-win players due in part to seven top-10 finishes in addition to his win at Quail Hollow in 2009. One of those was a 10th at the Masters, and three others were in FedEx Cup playoff events.
3. Camilo Villegas. Villegas definitely has the highest “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” factor, with a 3rd in the WGC-Accenture Match Play, and 8th in the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and a win at the Honda Classic in the last three weeks. All of his three wins have come in events with relatively strong fields.
4. Dustin Johnson. Johnson is the third player with three PGA Tour wins. He also finished 10th in the 2009 PGA Championship and so far has one win (Pebble Beach) in 2010. He finishes behind Villegas due to his first win being at a weaker-field Fall Series event.
5. Hunter Mahan. This was the toughest one to pick. Mahan gets the nod for several reasons: his win at Phoenix last month earns “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” points; his six top-10 finishes last year included two majors (10th in the Masters, 6th in the U.S. Open) and one WGC event (4th at Bridgestone); and he’s come through in the clutch at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup recently. Two career wins also put him ahead of McIlroy, who has tremendous upside but one win.

Let the debate begin!